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by BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
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- 3 days ago8 min
Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?
The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?Andrew’s new book is ’1929: Inside the Crash’.Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
- 6 days ago28 min
Education, Education, Education (and immigration)
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in… We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores? A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Guests: Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
- 1 weeks ago8 min
Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France
In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe?We look into what the data actually tells us. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O'Neill
- 1 weeks ago28 min
Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us. Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one. Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers. And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an EnvelopePresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
- 2 weeks ago8 min
The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Sound Mix: James Beard Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
- 2 weeks ago28 min
Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.Contributors: Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’ Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy AssociatesCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
- 3 weeks ago8 min
Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?
What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. When a disease isn’t on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic. But what if the thing you’re talking about is not a virus, but a feeling? In 2023, the US surgeon general launched a report called “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation”, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated. The idea that there is an epidemic of loneliness didn’t start there - the term was already in use in the US in the 2010s. And it’s a phrase that’s still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis. After that warning from the US Surgeon General, the World Health Organisation launched the Commission on Social Connection, with their director general warning that “more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely.”But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we’re in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness? It’s hard to find the data that backs up this claim.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukCONTRIBUTOR:Professor Melody Ding, an epidemiologist and population behavioural scientist at the University of SydneyCREDITS:Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
- 3 weeks ago28 min
Are refugees more likely to commit crime?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right.In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too.Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukCONTRIBUTORS:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPBCREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
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About More or Less
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
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