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Geopolitics with Frank McKenna: Daily Summaries Delivered
by TD Securities
Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities.
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- 1 weeks ago29 min
Elections and Unrest it Seems Everywhere
Frank and Peter suggest that October's episode of Geopolitics comes during the busiest geopolitical calendar in the 7 years of this podcast series. The conversation begins with a journey into the listener mailbag, allowing Frank to respond to skepticism that the Canadian Government is truly willing to sell airports and other infrastructure assets and whether a blue wave at mid-terms will make a difference for Canada. The pod then pivots to the recent election results in Canada where in Frank's mind, separatists were devastated in both Alberta and Quebec, with less than 25% in each province voting with the vein of separation. The conversation turns to unrest in France, where Frank suggests as many as five layers of factors combined to cause the recent rioting. He thinks that countries in the EU like France that are spending beyond their means may end up facing a "Greece moment" where there simply is no choice but to rein in fiscal spending and reduce entitlements. The geopolitical conversation ends where if often does, with the tragic situation in Ukraine and the on and off hostilities in the Middle East. This podcast was recorded on October 21st, 2026.Chapter Headings01:07 - Listener Mailbag – Frank Gets Pushback08:35 - Post-Mortem – Alberta and Quebec Go to the Polls17:41 - Is Unrest in France a Canary?24:09 - The Wars in Ukraine and Iran For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Sep 25, 202639 min
Can Carney Leverage the Hype from the Canada Investing Summit?
In Episode 82, Frank provides his grade score on the recent Canada Investment Summit hosted by Prime Minister Carney with two thumbs up for a job well done. He addresses the standoff on tariff negotiations between Canada and the US and figures the two sides are closer than one would otherwise think based on rhetoric. He suggests that negotiations between Mexico and the US will be much less contentious believes that concerns raised by other countries who signed deals before the Supreme Court IEEPA ruling like Argentina will be one-offs. Frank reflects on 9-11 and former Prime Minister Chretien's speech at the Gander, NL Memorial, which some pundits hail as one of the greatest speeches by a Canadian leader in history. He also covers the latest developments ahead of mid-terms in the US, the election in Quebec and the referendum on a separation referendum in Alberta.This podcast was recorded on September 24, 2026.Chapter Headings 00:48 Possible Catalysts for a Breakthrough on Trade Talks? 14:16 Does the Canada Investing Summit Deserve its Hype? 16:32 Has Carney's Pushback on US Trade Deal Emboldened Other Countries? 21:42 Frank's Big Takeaway from UN Conference – Presence of AI on the Agenda 25:45 Predicting Mid Terms – Does Frank's Prediction Market Agree with Blue Wave? 29:50 Reflections on 9-11 34:03 Canada's Two Referendums Come into Focus For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Aug 21, 202646 min
The Dog Days of Summer
With the ink not yet dry on the Canada-US trade agreement, Frank attempts to separate signal from noise in analyzing winners and losers in bi-lateral trade negotiations between the two countries. With an all-out trade war, the worst possible outcome and zero tariffs unrealistic, Prime Minister Carney and his small negotiating team have worked tirelessly to ensure every constituency in Canada suffers a little bit of pain but none of them feel like they were hung out to dry to get a deal done. That said, the devil remains in the detail on topics such as digital alignment, whatever that means when the final agreement is published. Frank sounds the alarm bell for business leaders, many of whom will be in Toronto in September for Prime Minister Carney's Canada Investing Summit, about the back up in long-term interest rates and wonders why this topic is not getting more airtime. He finishes with a quick summary on the wars in Iran and Ukraine and strikes a slightly bullish tone on the Blue Jays. This podcast was recorded on August 20, 2026. Chapter Headings 00:26 - Carney and Trump Hammer out Trade Agreement 07:13 - What Does Digital Alignment Mean? 20:13 - Carney Attempts to Thread Needle with Provinces 22:19 - Why Back Up in Long Rates Is Not Getting Attention from Business Leaders 29:44 - Canada to Take Centre Stage of Investing World with Economic Summits 37:39 - Two Wars with No End in Sight For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Jul 22, 202639 min
The Iranian Quagmire
In Episode 80, Frank jumps right into the tariff fray with a review of the recent 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports, suggesting that the maneuver is in part designed to eliminate any Canadian leverage in advance of CUSMA negotiations. He urges calm from Canadian leaders and no rhetoric. Frank disagrees with the decision by Carney's government to provide concessions to the US to get the Windsor-to-Detroit Gordie Howe Bridge opened as it might provide leverage to Republicans running for office in Michigan and directly impact control of the Senate and future relations between the two countries. However, he understands that the Canadian Government needed to consider the bigger picture relationship and upcoming negotiations in weighing the pros and cons of giving in to US demands. He admits to being stunned by the recent flattering coverage of Mark Carney in the Wall Street Journal. The Rupert Murdoch owned Journal's two-part detailed analysis of Carney's role in dictating the rest of the world's approach to the US likely left the US Administration seething and leads Frank to conclude that the Wall Street Journal supports Republicans, not Trump. Frank finishes up with thoughts on the US quagmire in Iran, suggesting one of two outcomes is now possible: a deal that does not result in US objectives or an expansion of hostilities that will result in loss of more US soldiers. This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2026 Chapter Headings 00:35 - Trump Imposes New Tariffs on Canada 09:34 - Did Canada Compromise on the Gordie Howe Bridge? 15:39 - Elbridge Colby's Defense of US-Global Relations rings Hollow 19:30 - Takeaways from Frank's East Coast Summit 22:22 - Does Graham Plattner's Resignation Help or Hurt Democrats in Maine? 29:29 - Wall Street Journal Profile on Carney Leaves Frank Gobsmacked 32:00 - Why Iran is a Quagmire? For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Jun 23, 202639 min
An Early Look at Midterm Elections
In Episode 79, Frank welcomes back his friend and colleague Chris Krueger, Head of Global Macro Research for TD Securities and an expert on Washington politics, to discuss the upcoming US Midterm elections in November. Before digging in on US politics, Frank and Chris work through some recent developments around the globe including the Iran Peace Deal, the Trump-Meloni dispute and Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister of the UK. When the conversation switches to mid-terms, Chris educates our listeners on the math to control the House and Senate and suggests that the next leader of the Democratic Party is likely to emerge from state legislatures rather than chambers of government in Washington. Frank handicaps the Rubio-Vance sweepstakes for next Republican leader and believes that other horses will participate in the leadership race as well. The two finish up discussing the dispute over the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, IEEPA refunds and expectations for CUSMA negotiations. This podcast was recorded on June 22, 2026 Chapter Headings 01:15 - The Iran Peace Deal 07:21 - Starmer Quits 15:40 - The Math for House and Senate 22:19 - Leading Candidates for Democrats 24:54 - Rubio vs Vance 28:04 - Dispute over Gordie Howe Bridge 32:04 - New US Tariffs Arrive as IEEPA Refunds Start 34:47 - Expectations for CUSMA For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- May 27, 20261h 16m
Geopolitics meets Major League Baseball
Frank and Peter found heaven in the May episode of Geopolitics with the marriage of a live audience for Episode 78 before a Jays game at the Rogers Center and a special guest appearance in the second half of this podcast by former Toronto Blue Jays President Paul Beeston to talk baseball. Frank covers a wide range of topics in the first 30 minutes including his view on the wars in Iran and Ukraine as well as Canadian hot button topics such as the upcoming CUSMA negotiations and the upcoming separation vote in Alberta. He also takes a moment to remember the life of his friend Robert Irving from Moncton who passed away recently. The conversation shifts to baseball where two kids in a candy store named McKenna and Haynes lined up to ask Beeston everything he knows about baseball including his view on the Jays in 2026 as well as the pending labor negotiations between players and owners. Beeston offers his thoughts on the electronic review of everything in baseball, an outcome he would not support and finishes with some thoughts on 50 years with the Toronto Blue Jays organization. Chapter Headings 01:10 - Remember Robert Irving 03:52 - Are We Nearing the End of the Wars in Iran and Ukraine? 15:33 - Global Investors Turn Bullish on Canada 21:44 - CUSMA Rhetoric 29:00 - Premier Smith's Dangerous Gamble on Sovereignty Vote 39:07 - Beeston's 50 Game Review of Blue Jays Season 47:34 - Can Major League Baseball Avoid a Strike? 54:38 - Beeston Says No to Review of Every Umpire Decision 1:14:02 - Memories from 50 Years with the Blue Jays This podcast was recorded on 05/25/26 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Apr 29, 202642 min
A 24 Hour Geopolitical News Cycle
Episode 77 covers a wide range of topics on the geopolitical landscape including the recent assassination attempt on President Trump, the implications on global energy markets of UAE's decision to exit OPEC and which person is leading Iran in negotiations with the United States. Frank discusses the stalemate and war of attrition that is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is a win for Ukraine and the impact on populist governments of the shocking defeat by authoritarian leader Victor Orban in Hungary. The conversation turns to Canada where Frank discusses Carney's back door into a majority and how it will change calculus for the Liberal leader's policymaking and CUSMA negotiation strategy. He finishes with analysis of Prime Minister Carney's recent announcements of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund and an upcoming Federal Government-led global investment Summit planned for Toronto in September, both positive developments for Canada. This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026 Chapter Headings 00:48 - President Trump Assassination Attempt 05:58 - Who is Negotiating on Behalf of Iran? 11:25 - UAE Leaves OPEC 13:38 - Ukraine's Move to Back Pages Masks Recent War Successes 17:41 - What Orban's Loss Means for Populist Leaders? 30:35 - Carney Replies to Greer's Threats Ahead of CUSMA Talks 32:22 - Explaining Canada's New Sovereign Wealth Fund 36:46 - Recent Investment Wins for Carney Puts Approval Process in Spotlight For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Mar 27, 202658 min
Trump's Iran Conundrum
In Episode 76, Frank ponders the potential outcomes of the War in Iran and its impact on other global geopolitical events. He believes that despite a wide bid-ask spread in peace negotiations between Iran and the US that the Trump Administration will find a peaceful end to hostilities in the near future. Complicating matters in this war are different goals for the two protagonists, The US and Israel, one of which has to live next door to a now angry Iranian regime. Frank is not surprised by Iran's tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the lack of support for military escorts from NATO allies. One certainty is the impact of the war on energy prices and, in turn, broader inflation trends in the US is going to be negative for Trump and the Republicans at mid-term elections in November. We finish the dialogue back home in Canada, where citizens of the Province of Alberta are expected to hold a vote on secession from Canada later this year, an unfortunate distraction for Albertans and Canadians at a time of so much other geopolitical noise. Despite this unwanted noise and limited likelihood of success in the first secession attempt, Canadians would be remiss if we simply ignored this Alberta secession vote as noise; just ask citizens of the UK who didn’t take Brexit seriously until it was too late. This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026 Chapter Headings: 01:47 - The Goal of War with Iran 08:18 - Narrowing the Bid-Ask Spread on Peace Negotiations 12:57 - Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz 16:31 - Trump's Tries to Hold His Base 19:45 - The Future of NATO 27:19 - China's Quiet Positioning 35:05 - Higher Energy Prices – Impact on Mid-Terms 37:31 - Save America Act 43:11 - Alberta Secession Talk 55:57 - Frank's Two Favorite Words "Opening Day For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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About Geopolitics with Frank McKenna
Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities.
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