FIDF SPECIAL BRIEFING: Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Executive Director, INSS - 3.22.26

Lara Krinsky opens the briefing by saying the headlines only capture a fraction of what’s really happening, then brings on Dr. Mordechai Kedar to explain why Iran’s behavior in the fourth week of the war looks increasingly irrational. He argues Iran is deliberately widening the conflict beyond Israel and the U.S.—hitting Gulf states and other regional targets—because the regime is driven by an apocalyptic Twelver-Shia worldview that seeks chaos rather than normal self-preservation. Kedar warns that Europe is “sleepwalking” even as Iran demonstrates missile ranges that could threaten major European capitals, and he notes the striking imbalance that Gulf countries have absorbed far more Iranian fire than Israel while still hesitating to join the fight. He explains that their restraint is rooted in fear: they don’t trust the U.S. to finish the job, and they dread a scenario where the regime survives, humiliated, and later retaliates against them. On regime stability, he says Iran can survive without an air force or navy as long as its internal security forces remain cohesive, and he floats a path to lasting containment by backing ethnic militias to seize Iran’s oil-and-gas western corridor, cutting off the regime’s revenue and capacity to rebuild. He closes by touching on Qatar’s risky history of dependence on Iran, downplaying Iranian claims of breakthroughs against Israel’s defenses (including arguing the Dimona core is deeply underground), and warning that a “new Middle East” could still bring fresh threats—especially from Turkey’s ambitions and a future Palestinian state that could again fall to Hamas.