FIDF LIVE SPECIAL BRIEFING - Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense Democracies - 4.12.26

In this IDF Live briefing, Krinsky speaks with Jonathan Schanzer (FDD) about how the conflict whiplashed from full-scale attacks into a shaky ceasefire and then into “no man’s land,” with talks in Islamabad collapsing almost immediately. Schanzer says the ceasefire was never built on shared terms—Washington framed it as a conditional pause tied to opening the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran sold it domestically as a victory that would bring sanctions relief—making a durable deal unlikely from the start. He flags Pakistan’s role as a strange and shaky broker, and argues the bigger story is that all sides are using the lull to rearm, with Russia/China reportedly helping Iran while Israel worries about finite missile-defense interceptors and whether Iran can reopen “missile cities” and surge launches again. The most dangerous fuse, he warns, is the Strait of Hormuz: mines, shore-fired threats, and an emerging “toll booth” logic could revive an energy-and-markets war that forces the U.S. into hard choices—double down or leave—depending largely on Trump’s next call. He also stresses Israel is fighting a grinding multi-front war and is now pushing hard in Lebanon to clear Hezbollah away from the border and create a buffer zone, even as unprecedented direct Lebanon–Israel discussions are hinted at under U.S. auspices. The episode ends with the core uncertainty still unresolved—whether this is a pause before round two and whether U.S. and Israeli objectives remain fully aligned—followed by a reminder that “reality vs. distortion” is part of the fight and a call to support soldiers and reservists through FIDF.