We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins.Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible.Topics covered:Why monthly jobs reports need context, including survey uncertainty and revisionsHow to spot unusual industry-level payroll changes and assess the quality of jobs addedWhat county-level labor force trends reveal about aging and rural AmericaEric Pachman's research on foreign-born workers and the limits of replacement assumptionsHow a shrinking supply of workers could create pressure on service pricesHow diesel costs flow through freight surcharges, retailer margins, and consumer pricesWhat to watch for in retailer earnings calls as companies weigh price increasesWhy household income, driving habits, and spending patterns change the experience of inflationWhat Eric Pachman's Kroger study found about CPI, the Thrifty Food Plan, and store brandsUsing AI to test assumptions and expand access to data journalismExplore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools:https://www.data4thepeople.com/The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacementhttps://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanishedHow do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones?https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force27:00 Foreign-born workers, aging, and labor supply34:51 Energy costs and the path to consumer inflation47:49 Why your inflation experience differs from CPI56:12 Personal inflation tools and testing grocery prices1:02:36 AI, data journalism, and challenging your own bias1:11:17 Where to find Eric Pachman's work and toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.