Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.Topics covered:Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing outWhy strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fallThe assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economyAI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of productionWhy Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiariesCloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spendingBond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisisHow diesel costs could feed into core inflationGlobal diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policyChapters:00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending24:10 AI returns and the impressive 49329:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co