David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.David Rosenberg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/EconguyRosieRosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Topics covered:Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunityWhy he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflationHow slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spendingHow Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bondsWhy AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectorsWhere he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and AsiaHis model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commoditiesHow gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesisWhy he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base caseWhat working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornnessTimestamps:00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 202753:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornnessLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.