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DHUnplugged Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Andrew Horowitz and JC Dvorak
DHUnplugged Podcast – A Weekly Update of the More Interesting Side of Finance and Investing
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- 2 days ago1h 4m
DHUnplugged #823: Election Infection
The Biggest Story of the year – The McRib lawsuit. Next of course we have to discuss the election. For good measure let’ dive into the AI and Semi meltdown A couple of important announcementsas well. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X ELECTION NIGHT IN AMERICA Warm-Up - WORLD PEACE - Thank you Melania ! - Big Disruptions in the Communications space - ELECTIONS - McRib Lawsuit Update Markets - Oooofah - quite the ugly moves last week - at least bonds got a big (YUGE) bid - OIL - OMG have you seen pricing. Worst offensive move to say we won't attack until after the midterms. - META - good earnings, but stock tumbles - Starting to worry - Bond crisis is France could spillover --- But encouraging that safety trade leading to bonds again DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com Two more important announcements ! 1. NEW PODCAST - Party Line with the Dvorak Family 2. ASK ANDREW - This week's TDI Podcast - YOU GET FREE FINANCIAL ADVICE - Send questions to Askandrew@thedisciplinedinvestor.com ELECTION INFECTION - Early but it looks like a blue wave - somewhat surprising - Markets not so happy (QQQ Down 1.7%, S&P Down 0.80) - What is going to be the fallout -> IRAN, Exec Orders, Reconciliation process? OIL HITS $115 Last Week - Brent touched $115, a five-month high; WTI above $100. - Attacks on Saudi Arabia threaten regional oil supplies. - Higher fuel and transportation costs squeeze consumers, raise inflation pressure and complicate central bank policy. - This is not temporary at this point and the longer this goes on the more entrenched inflation becomes. - FOLLOW UP - 7% drop Monday as President Trump says something about diplomacy FAV STORY! MELANIA BROKERS CEASEFIRE - WORLD PEACE? NOT QUITE - Headlines trumpet Melania Trump brokering a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Sounds like the war is ending, right? Not exactly. - Agreement covers ONE city: Russian-occupied Oleshky in southern Ukraine. The rest of the war continues. - Temporary ceasefire begins October 29 to allow humanitarian aid and civilian evacuations. Not a nationwide peace agreement. - White House claims diplomatic victory, but neither Russia nor Ukraine had independently confirmed the deal when announced. - Quite the headline: "Melania Brokers Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire." Apparently the fine print is that the ceasefire covers one city. At this rate, only a few thousand more municipalities to go! MCRIB, HOLD THE RIB - A federal judge allowed key claims in a proposed class action against McDonald's to proceed over alleged misleading McRib marketing. - Customer
- 2 weeks ago1h 4m
DHUnplugged #822: Flying and Lying
AI leaves the building. Five days at the podium – that is it? Tesla finally takes flight… $500 toothbrush can’t handle water. LESSON – DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - AI leaves the building - Five days at the podium - Tesla finally takes flight - $500 toothbrush can't handle water - LESSON - DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS Markets - AI trade starts to crack - Two trillion deeper in debt - Hot inflation, cooler yields - Earnings face the pressure test DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com Trump Media's fusion fizzles - DJT shares headed toward an all-time low Friday despite its pending merger with nuclear-fusion developer TAE. - TAE shareholders would receive Trump Media stock, leaving them exposed to the declining share price. - Billions in Trump's paper wealth have evaporated since the company went public. DJT Stock INFLATION WON'T LEAVE - September CPI rose 0.6%; annual inflation hit 3.7% versus 3.6% expected. - Core prices rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected; annual core inflation reached 2.6%. - Producer prices jumped 1.3%, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% annually. - Wholesale goods prices rose 2.6%; services increased 0.8%. TWO TRILLION SHORT - Fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.992 trillion, up $217 billion; third-largest on record. - Revenue rose 3% to $5.4 trillion. Spending increased 6% to $7.4 trillion. - Debt-service costs climbed 12% to $1.36 trillion; national debt exceeded $40 trillion. - Tariff refunds totaled $145 billion following the Supreme Court ruling; net tariff revenue fell 11%. BONDS FIND BUYERS - The 10-year Treasury ended the week near 5.10%; the 30-year near 5.44%. - The 30-year yield fell about 16 basis points, its biggest weekly decline since April 2025. - Yields declined for the week despite hotter inflation reports. AI TRADE UNRAVELS - Nasdaq suffered its worst week since June, ending a four-week winning streak. - Semiconductor ETF SOXX posted its longest losing streak in 20 years. - VIX moved above 20 as investors questioned AI spending and investment returns. - Energy, utilities and consumer staples attracted interest during the tech retreat. COREWEAVE CREDIT CRACKS</str
- 3 weeks ago1h 5m
DHUnplugged #821: Gold Standard Ahead
Andrew had the flu. Markets had their own fever. Earnings ahead. Credit cracking. Have yields peaked? Oil’s shipping bill explodes. Gold standard chatter returns. Be nice to your AI. It may bite back. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - INFLUENZA! - Earnings Season Ahead - Are we going back to the gold standard? - Be Nice to Your AI - They May Bite Back....(OR COOK YOUR BUILDING) Markets - Yields may have just peaked... - Oil prices may not be the end of the problem - Cracks in credit - Bank earnings - lots of profits to show DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com Cracks in Credit/Real Estate - 2 Charts Price Reductions Sellers and Buyers HERE WE GO: BE NICE TO CLAUDE - Anthropic prohibits sustained, needless cruelty toward its models; ordinary frustration, pushback and testing are exempt. - Claude ending abusive conversations remains the main response; account restrictions or suspensions remain possible. - The policy also removes blanket restrictions on personalized political targeting while retaining bans on deception and voter suppression. TANKER MAYHEM - US-to-China tanker hire: about $80 million, versus $74 million for a Falcon 9 launch. - One US booking reached $41 per barrel in freight, versus $4.50 last year. - Hormuz shuttle transfers, damaged ships and Africa detours are tying up the fleet. - Inflation-adjusted tanker rates are the highest since the 1960s, squeezing refinery margins and raising delivered oil costs. FRANCE SHAKES THE EURO - France's borrowing premium over Germany reached its highest since the eurozone debt crisis; the euro hit a 17-month low. - Heavy government spending and political obstacles to fiscal repair are pushing investors toward safer German and Swiss assets. - Pressure extends into French
- Sep 30, 20261h 0m
DHUnplugged #820: Gullible Markets
Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran….Deal or No Deal? Robot Soldiers – new and exciting. 30-Year Bond Mayhem and gullible markets. So much economic news coming up – let’s dig in. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Closest to The Pin??????????? - Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran....Deal or No Deal? - Robot Soldiers - new and exciting Markets - 30-Year Bond Mayhem! Alliteration or Tautogram? - This week in Economics - plenty to come - What is wrong with Nike? - How gullible can markets be?   DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com GAME: IS IT AN ALLITERATION OR TAUTOGRAM ----- Alliteration: The repetition of the same initial sound in neighboring words (for example, "big bad bears"). -------Tautogram: A strict form of alliteration where all words in a phrase or sentence begin with the identical letter - Which is it? ::: Bessent's Big Bond Blunder Backfired! How about this? Brash Billionaire Bessent’s Botched Big Bond Blunder Backfired Bitterly! THIS WEEK IN ECONOMIC NEWS............... TUESDAY - THE CONSUMER AND JOB OPENINGS - Consumer confidence and August job openings arrive at 10 AM ET. - Watch whether households are getting more worried about prices and whether employers are still hiring. WEDNESDAY - INFLATION AND SPENDING - August PCE inflation, personal income and spending arrive at 8:30 AM ET, alongside updated second-quarter GDP figures. - The key question: is spending holding up while inflation stays elevated? THURSDAY - FACTORY CHECK - September ISM manufacturing arrives at 10 AM ET. Watch new orders, employment and prices paid for signs that growth and inflation are pulling in different directions. FRIDAY - THE BIG ONE - September payrolls, unemployment and wages arrive at 8:30 AM ET. - The current forecast is about 100,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment, down from August's 162,000 job gain. FAST FOOD'S SQUEEZE - McDonald's CEO expects elevated inflation and flat restaurant traffic to persist. US same-store sales rose just 0.8% last quarter as visits fell. - McDonald's plans $8.5 billion in support for restaurant upgrades through 2036, betting better operations and value offers can win back customers. -- Wendy's faces its own traffic problem and plans to close up to roughly 350 underperforming US restaurants in 2026. -- Meritage Hospitality Group, a franchisee operating 314 Wendy's locations, filed for bankruptcy protection on September 17. Wendy's itself did not file. - The common problem: customers are visiting less often while food, labor and restaurant costs remain high. - La Vie on Saturday ($36 Mezza Plate!)<
- Sep 23, 20261h 6m
DHUnplugged #819: Counterfactualzzzz
Maybe people are just unhappy – says Goldman. Counterfactualzzzz – that is why bonds are still up. Are we getting $5,000? Bitcoin is running again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Greenland (Renamed Red White and Blue Land?) - Consumers and People are JUST UNHAPPY - No more press coverage? Maybe people are unhappy (see above) because of all of the shenanigans going on. ---- Maybe we will all be happier without all of the White House coverage Markets - New Highs - NASDAQ 100 moving up with risk assets. (Breath poor though) --- Close enough to end of month, quarter to be window dressing ---- Buy Yom Kippur!!! - 10YR Treasury at 5% again - wait until you hear Bessent's victory speech DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com MARKET MOVE - On the heels of SoftBank Group Corp. seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in a junk bond deal to fund investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI. - The company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities and €1 billion of euro debt to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month. - SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond offering, with yields that would be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels. - Could it be that simple why NAZ 100 is at new highs? BESSENT'S "COUNTERFACTUAL" DEFENSE - This is darling... - Rep. Jim Himes questioned Bessent on September 15 at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. - Himes: "The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?" - Bessent: "Well, there is a counterfactual of what would it have done." - Bessent added: "We then proceeded to have the two most successful Treasury auctions that we've had in 20 years." - Goes into the Alternative Facts and Fake News Category. BESSENT'S MYSTERY BANK - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a large unnamed bank would be sanctioned over Iran. - The administration has targeted Iranian oil, shipping, finance and weapons networks. - "Operation Economic Outcast" had already targeted nearly 60 entities, people and vessels. - Treasury later sanctioned Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran-related sanctions evasion. GOLDMAN: MAYBE CONSUMERS ARE JUST UNHAPPY - Michigan consumer sentiment fell nearly 8% from August and 13% year over year. - Goldman says weak sentiment may increasingly reflect broader unhappiness, not just economic conditions. - "Very happy" Americans fell to 23% in 2024 from 31% in 2016. - Inflation still weighs on confidence, but distrust and pessimism may also be distorting surveys. - Goldman says sentiment may be becoming less useful for predicting actual activity. <stro
- Sep 16, 20261h 2m
DHunplugged #818: Cyberdyne IRL
It’s the end of the world and we know it… CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday? Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur? Plenty of AI PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday - Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?) - CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top - Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL Markets - 100% Probability of a rate hike this week - Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur - HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com FED HIKE IS BACK - Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation. - 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data. - August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. - Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move. AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023. - Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher. - The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit. - Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated. SLOW DOWN THE AI - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls. - Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control. - Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections and should not be designed around claims of consciousness or legal rights. - The semiconductor index dropped more than 5% Monday; Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and AMD were among the major casualties. DEEPSEEK CHANGES THE MEMORY MATH - DeepSeek's latest architecture sharply lowers the amount of memory required to run inference, including a major reduction in KV-cache requirements. - This is not simply HBM being replaced by SSD: the architecture reduces both high-speed memory and persistent-storage requirements per inference. - That complicates the straight-line thesis that every incremental AI token requires proportionally more HBM and storage. - Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix still benefit from enormous AI memory demand, but will efficiency gains become an important counterweight to unlimited-demand forecasts? <span style="color: #993300
- Sep 9, 20261h 6m
DHUnplugged #817: I am The House
I am the House! Bessent on Yen and other matters (he has inside information). Straight of Hormuz – There is no movement people. CPI coming Friday – many say ultimate Fed test. Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - I am the House! Bessent tonight on Yen and other matters (he has inside information) - Straight of Hormuz - There is no movement people - CPI coming Friday - many say ultimate Fed test - Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles Markets - Chips up, making up for some time - Oil UP! and UP! - Yields keep climbing DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING - Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP. - Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns. - The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time. FED HIKE ODDS RISE - Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools. - The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil. - It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent. OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION - Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz. - The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows. - Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target. - Basically, central banks can raise rates all they want yet it is too bad that the the Strait of Hormuz does not attend FOMC meetings. SCHWAB VOLATILITY TRADE - Barron's argues low market volatility may not last as fall seasonality and macro risks build. - Schwab could benefit if volatility drives heavier customer trading activity. - The suggested trade used an October risk reversal built around $110 puts and $120 calls. BEAR INVASION - Colorado has logged more than 7,000 bear sightings this year, already a record. - Drought and poor natural food supplies are pushing bears into homes and businesses. - New Mexico and Utah have also reported unusually high numbers of bears being euthanized. - One Colorado homeowner found two bears inside his hallway; another wandered into a vape shop. - Is this a warning for markets????? META SETTLEMENT - Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle state claims involving harm to children. - States had been seeking penalties approaching $200 billion.<b
- Sep 2, 20261h 4m
DHUnplugged #816: Strikes, Spikes, Hikes
September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ---- OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Met
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