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by Matt Diemer
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- 2 days ago24 min
Sept 18: Bitcoin Pushes Back Toward $78K as Wall Street Moves Deeper Onchain
Bitcoin moved back toward $78,000 as spot ETF flows returned to positive territory, although Matt argues the market remains sideways rather than in a confirmed recovery. The bigger structural story is the SEC's new five-year innovation exemption for tokenized U.S. stocks, which requires tokenized shares to carry the same ownership rights as their traditional counterparts. Traditional finance continues moving deeper into blockchain infrastructure even as corporate Bitcoin purchasing has slowed. Prediction markets are also becoming increasingly important and increasingly controversial. Matt discusses a listener's proposal to emphasize knowledge and consumer protection rather than prohibition, his prior research into apparently coordinated wallet activity in Ohio political markets, and the Ninth Circuit's ruling involving Kalshi on tribal lands. He also examines AI-assisted cybersecurity and Andrew Yang's unverified account of self-replicating AI code on the open internet, while raising his own concerns about the growing role private AI platforms play in political research and expression. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 3 days ago12 min
Sept 17: Bitcoin Holds Near $77K After the Fed Hike as Institutional Crypto Keeps Expanding
Bitcoin remained around $77,000 after the Federal Reserve delivered its widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, with Matt arguing that the decision itself had already been priced into markets. The more important issue now is weakening demand, including softer ETF flows, on-chain inflows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury purchases. Matt continues to view Bitcoin as sideways unless it decisively loses roughly $76,000, which would put the $72,000 area back into focus. Institutional crypto infrastructure continues expanding despite the CLARITY Act's failure. Circle launched Arc with more than 100 applications and institutional participants, while Deutsche Bank plans to launch regulated digital-asset custody in Europe. Congress is also continuing work on crypto tax and Bitcoin-reserve legislation, while Zcash rallied sharply following renewed institutional attention to privacy. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 4 days ago24 min
Sept 16: The CLARITY Act Failed. Trump Gave Democrats the Political Opening They Needed.
The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a 49-50 cloture vote, well short of the 60 votes required. Democrats centered their opposition on ethics concerns surrounding President Trump's crypto businesses, while Republicans argued they had already incorporated 126 substantive Democratic requests. Three Republicans opposed advancement on substantive grounds, while Thom Tillis switched his vote for procedural reasons that preserve the possibility of reconsideration. Matt argues that Trump's crypto interests gave Democrats an obvious political opportunity, while also questioning provisions designed to protect banks from stablecoin competition. The failure leaves major questions unresolved for altcoins, exchanges, DeFi, tokenized assets and developers, even as Bitcoin already operates under a more established regulatory framework. Fairshake enters the midterms with more than $112 million available, but there is no evidence yet that it will simply abandon Democrats for Republicans. Matt's broader conclusion is that CLARITY's failure is a political and regulatory setback, not the end of crypto. The technology, investment and financial experimentation underlying the industry continue regardless of what happened in the Senate. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 5 days ago13 min
Sept 15: Bitcoin Slips Below $77K as the 10-Year Breaks 5% and CLARITY Faces Its Big Vote
Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 as the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, oil remained above $100 and markets heavily priced a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike for Wednesday. ETF flows have also weakened after the large inflows earlier this month. Matt remains cautious, arguing that expensive money, persistent inflation and geopolitical energy pressure create a difficult environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets. The Senate's 2:15 p.m. Eastern CLARITY Act vote is today's major crypto catalyst. The procedural vote requires 60 senators, meaning Republicans need support beyond their 53-seat conference. Matt supports clearer crypto rules and stronger ethics provisions around public officials, but argues that stablecoin regulation should not become a mechanism for protecting banks from legitimate competition. He also sees the emerging push to slow AI development as a potential economic and geopolitical risk if U.S. restrictions move faster than those of competing countries. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 6 days ago5 min
Craig's Biggest Trade This Week Is Staying in Cash
Craig starts the week largely in cash after last week's CPI and PPI volatility produced a massive Bitcoin whipsaw capable of stopping out traders on both sides of the market. Bitcoin remains consolidated roughly between $76,000 and $82,000, while the total market cap is similarly directionless. With no clean trend or compelling structure, Craig sees no reason to force a trade simply for the sake of having a position. The bigger concern is event risk, with the CLARITY Act procedural vote followed closely by the FOMC rate decision and accompanying Fed language. Craig explains why he avoids holding short-term trades through major binary events and distinguishes probability-based trading from gambling on an unpredictable announcement. Even if a strong setup appears before those events, he would not want to carry it into the volatility. For now, his most important trade is patience. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 6 days ago21 min
Sept 14: Bitcoin Holds Near $78K as Oil, Yields and AI Fears Hit the Markets
Bitcoin remains around $78,000 as oil trades above $100, the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with 5% and markets prepare for Wednesday's Fed decision. Matt remains cautious on Bitcoin's near-term outlook and still considers the current movement part of the same broad sideways range until Bitcoin can decisively break through the low $80Ks and establish $80,000 as support. The CLARITY Act also faces a major procedural test this week, with stablecoin yield emerging as a key fight between crypto companies and traditional banks. Matt argues that regulators should distinguish genuine consumer protection from rules designed to insulate incumbents from competition. He applies the same concern to AI, arguing that legitimate safety risks should not become justification for allowing a small group of dominant companies to create a regulatory structure that locks out open-source development and smaller competitors. Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 1 weeks ago15 min
Sept 11: Hot CPI, $100 Oil and 5% Treasury Yields, So Why Did Bitcoin Jump?
Bitcoin reversed sharply from roughly $76,000 to above $78,000 even as August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, CPI increased 0.4% for the month, oil remained above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%. Matt argues that the rally may reflect markets gaining certainty about the Fed, but he still considers roughly $76K through the low $80Ks the same broad Bitcoin price range rather than evidence of a new trend.Researchers also cut by more than half a benchmark for the quantum resources needed for a key operation involved in a potential future attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptography. The research does not mean either network can be cracked today, but Matt sees the combination of improving quantum hardware, more efficient algorithms and AI-assisted research as another reason crypto developers should accelerate post-quantum preparations before the threat becomes practical.Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 1 weeks ago15 min
Sept 10: Wall Street Is Building on Crypto Rails While Bitcoin Slips Back Toward $77K
Bitcoin fell toward $76,900 as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.87%, but the bigger stories are happening around crypto infrastructure. Nasdaq is investing $100 million in Kraken parent Payward, PayPal is working on infrastructure for customized stablecoins, Visa says its stablecoin settlement business has surpassed $20 billion, and MetaMask is preparing to become a standalone company focused on a much broader range of consumer financial services.Bitcoin and Ethereum developers are also accelerating preparations for post-quantum cryptography as IBM and other companies pursue increasingly capable quantum systems. Matt argues that nobody can confidently predict the exact quantum timeline, particularly as increasingly capable AI systems could accelerate research, and that crypto should migrate toward quantum-resistant security before an actual threat emerges rather than waiting until the problem becomes urgent.Happy HODLing Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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