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by Matthew Mezinskis
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- 4 weeks ago1h 12m
Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way
In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections.One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation.Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanCCrypto Voices: Episode 198Chapters:00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression00:48:48 - Bitcoin's Scale Invariant Power Law Properties00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile RegressionHosts: Matthew Mezinskis,Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!
- Apr 17, 20262h 23m
Giovanni Santostasi - Bitcoin Cycles and Power Law
In this episode, Matthew sits down with Giovanni Santostasi to explore one of the most rigorous frameworks for understanding Bitcoin: the power law and log-periodic behavior of price cycles. The conversation begins with the launch of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, aimed at bringing academic rigor to Bitcoin research across physics, economics, and data science. Giovanni then explains his “eigenmode” approach, showing how nearly 97% of Bitcoin’s price behavior can be explained by a power law trend, with the remaining movement driven by oscillatory cycles.The discussion dives deeper into whether Bitcoin truly follows a four-year cycle, or if that pattern is simply a byproduct of more complex log-periodic oscillations that stretch over time. Giovanni argues that what appears to be repeating four-year cycles may actually be elongating cycles, with a major peak potentially forming around late 2027. He also breaks down his accurate call for a late-2024/early-2025 downturn, driven by models suggesting Bitcoin would remain close to its power law rather than overshoot dramatically.The episode concludes with a broader macro lens, comparing Bitcoin’s decelerating growth rate to the exponential growth of traditional finance, raising the possibility of a future “phase transition” where Bitcoin reshapes the global monetary system.Follow Giovanni on X: @Giovann35084111Visit BitPoseidon Official Site of the Bitcoin Power Law: https://bitposeidon.com/Crypto Voices: Episode 197Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Michel, Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comAlec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!
- Apr 8, 20261h 16m
Omid Malekan - IRAN, WAR & BITCOIN
In this episode, Matthew and Alec are joined by Omid Malekan to speak about rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and how global instability may accelerate Bitcoin and crypto adoption. The discussion explores internal unrest in Iran, including protests driven by hyperinflation, economic collapse, and regime instability, alongside the uncertainty surrounding potential geopolitical escalation. The conversation then shifts to whether Bitcoin mining in Iran played a role in sanctions evasion, with analysis showing no meaningful drop in global hash rate, suggesting limited reliance on Iranian mining. Matthew and Omid also discuss how a fragmenting global order may require a neutral, permissionless financial system independent of U.S. or China-centric monetary control. They contrast Bitcoin with gold, noting how gold is difficult to transport or deploy during crises, while Bitcoin can move instantly using private keys. The episode also examines stablecoin usage in Iran, including reports of adoption among younger populations and potential use in cross-border payments during internet restrictions. Omid highlights how crypto adoption often spreads gradually, comparing it to early mobile technology adoption before smartphones reached mainstream use. The conversation frames Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge and settlement network in a multipolar world. The episode concludes with the argument that geopolitical instability may serve as a long-term catalyst for crypto adoption.Follow Omid on X: @malekanomsCrypto Voices: Episode 196Contents:00:00:00 - Intro00:00:25 - Iran's Political Crisis and Regime Collapse00:07:40 - Iran's Crisis: Economic Collapse and Uncertain Future00:14:46 - Iran's Attack Reshapes Middle East Alliances00:19:27 - Military Strikes Without a Post-War Plan00:25:05 - Iran's Revolutionary Regime Goes All In00:30:19 - Bitcoin's Advantage Over Gold in Conflict00:32:47 - Gold Hoards and Bitcoin's Timing Problem00:37:51 - Stable Coins and Censorship Resistance00:44:50 - Crypto's Real Promise: Censorship Resistance Over Regulation00:51:57 - Lessons from DAO Hack: Neutrality and Risk00:55:49 - Prediction Markets and Price Discovery Challenges01:04:50 - Drones, Memes, and Modern Warfare Realignment01:09:19 - Phone Addiction and Digital Distraction RealityHosts: Matthew Mezinskis, & Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Alec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Show Sponsors: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!
- Feb 24, 20261h 4m
Jake Langenkamp - Sovereign Bitcoin, Tether, and the Mining Shift
Bitcoin mining, state adoption, stablecoins, and geopolitical competition take center stage in this wide-ranging discussion with Jake Langenkamp. Jake Langenkamp is the founder and CEO of Bridger, a Bitcoin mining company working to partner with international utilities to monetize wasted energy. Prior to Bridger, Jake spent about two decades in the U.S. military and working for the Department of Defense. Over the course of his career, he's worked in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Africa.Jake argues we are in an “awkward middle phase” between retail-driven cycles and sovereign accumulation. Countries are experimenting with strategic Bitcoin reserves, tax policy changes, and mining initiatives, with Brazil’s recent proposal serving as a case study. The conversation dives deep into stablecoins as instruments of US monetary strategy, Tether’s expanding global role, and the implications of frozen addresses and compliance pressure.On mining, Jake explains why frontier markets, especially parts of Africa, present powerful opportunities. Bitcoin mining monetizes stranded energy, accelerates electrification, and may become a sovereign strategy as states recognize Bitcoin’s macro importance.The episode closes with broader geopolitical tensions, sanctions dynamics, and the growing intersection between Bitcoin, statecraft, and global monetary competition.Follow Jake on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-langenkamp/ Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JakeLangenkampLearn more about Bridger: https://www.bridgerbc.com/Crypto Voices: Episode 194Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comHost: Matthew Mezinskis & Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #money #economics
- Dec 13, 20251h 51m
Stephen Perrenod - Money or Debt?
This episode of Crypto Voices features Stephen Perrenod, a veteran technologist, author, and public speaker with decades of experience at the intersection of advanced computing, science, and enterprise strategy. With a background spanning cloud computing, high-performance computing, AI, and data-intensive systems, Stephen brings a rare mix of technical depth and market insight shaped by leadership roles at companies like Cray, SGI, and Sun Microsystems, as well as advisory work with Fortune 500 firms and emerging startups at OrionX. Holding degrees from MIT and Harvard, his perspective grounds today’s crypto and AI narratives in long-cycle technological evolution rather than short-term hype.Follow Stephen on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephenperrenod/ Crypto Voices: Episode 193Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comHost: Matthew MezinskisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #money #economics
- Nov 25, 20251h 23m
Shaun Pinner on Mariupol, Captivity, and Russian Propaganda
This episode features former British and Ukrainian military serviceman Shaun Pinner, who recounts his experience fighting in Mariupol during the initial Russian invasion and surviving months of brutal captivity. Shaun describes the intense seven-week battle that preceded his capture, the torture he endured, and the propaganda mechanisms used by Russian state media to portray him as a mercenary and terrorist. The conversation also covers the resilience of the Ukrainian society, the evolution of drone warfare, the shifting balance of power, and the role of NATO and Western support. Shaun also breaks down how misinformation targets Western audiences and why Russia invests heavily in online influence. He closes by discussing his book, Live Fight Survive, which recounts his captivity and counters the false narratives created about him while he was imprisoned.Follow Shaun on X: https://x.com/olddog100uaLive. Fight. Survive. The International Bestseller by Shaun Pinner: https://shaunpinner.com/bookCrypto Voices: Episode 192Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comChapters:00:00:00 - Intro00:03:31 - Torture and Captivity in Russian Prison00:07:26 - Systemic War Crimes in Russian Military00:09:53 - Torture, False Confessions, and War Crimes00:14:14 - Russian Intelligence Recruitment and POW Treatment Disparities00:20:45 - Pokrovsk: Russia's Hollow Military Victory00:33:32 - Ukraine's Hidden Power Shift Against Russia00:35:49 - Living Under Constant Drone Attacks in Kharkiv00:40:11 - Russian Economy Collapse and Putin's Failed Goals00:43:00 - Putin's Paranoia and Oligarch Pressure00:48:48 - Republican Support for Ukraine Explained00:52:00 - NATO Spending and Modern Drone Warfare00:56:34 - Ukraine's Training Edge Over Russian Forces00:59:45 - Russia's Sanitation Crisis and Poverty01:03:58 - Decoding Russian Propaganda and Media Control01:07:04 - Russian Propaganda and Misuse of Free Speech01:10:27 - Russian Propaganda and Disinformation War01:15:11 - Ground Sources and Detecting Propaganda01:16:48 - Supporting Ukraine: Donations and Legal ActionHost: Matthew MezinskisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#ukraine #russia #unitedstates
- Nov 14, 202551 min
David Schwed - What We’re Getting Wrong About Crypto Security
This episode of Crypto Voices is all about the hard truths of digital asset security and why the industry still isn’t ready for what’s coming. David Schwed, former CISO at Robinhood and now COO at SVRN, unpacks the real-world gaps in crypto infrastructure, the illusion of safety in enterprise setups, and why physical attacks may be a bigger deal than the headlines suggest.Crypto Voices: Episode 191Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comAlec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Chapters:00:00:00 - Security Fundamentals: Keys and Digital Signatures00:02:03 - Crypto Security: Prevention Over Response00:05:42 - Physical Security and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities00:08:31 - Policy Gaps and Quantum Threats in Crypto Security00:10:58 - Quantum Computing Threats to Encryption00:15:39 - Banks Focus on Blockchain Technology Over Digital Assets00:18:52 - Bitcoin as Digital Gold and Stablecoin Future00:24:10 - AI Over-Reliance in Cybersecurity Tools00:28:16 - Legal Risks of AI-Generated Code in Production00:31:27 - Data Governance and Privacy in AI Security00:35:56 - Protecting Personal Information in Digital Forms00:37:34 - Zero Knowledge Proofs and Privacy Standards00:40:33 - Technology Maturity and Regulatory Standards00:42:10 - Self-Custody vs Platform Security Trade-offs00:46:33 - Crypto's Growth: Missing the Early Community Days00:49:08 - Crypto Market Growth and Builder ConcernsHosts: Matthew Mezinskis & Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #privacy #unitedstates
- Nov 10, 20251h 9m
James Check on Bitcoin
In this episode of Crypto Voices, Matt is joined by James, one of the top minds in Bitcoin on-chain analysis. James has been a driving force behind Bitcoin analytics since 2019. He led the analyst team at Glassnode, created frameworks like Cointime Economics, and was the voice behind the Week On-chain series.Together, Matt and James dive into what really drives Bitcoin’s growth and why it doesn’t follow the clean exponential trends we see with stocks like Apple. Instead, Bitcoin behaves along a power curve, with each doubling taking longer than the last. They explore log vs log-log scaling, the limits of stock-to-flow models, and why most charts people throw around online miss the point entirely.If you want to understand how Bitcoin actually grows and how to read it right, this is a must-listen.Keep up with James at https://www.checkonchain.com/X: https://x.com/_checkmatey_?lang=enCrypto Voices: Episode 190Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donate.basemoney.world/i/TsDZFvvW7EApKJJGuhb6JSShow support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comChapters:00:00:00 - Bitcoin's Massive Underwater Position Explained00:07:13 - Bitcoin Chart Analysis and Market Cycles00:14:50 - Reading Bitcoin Market Cycles Through On-Chain Data00:23:14 - Bitcoin Unrealized Losses and Price Pressure00:25:15 - Mining Revenue and On-Chain Activity Metrics00:31:29 - Bitcoin vs Gold: Relative Performance Analysis00:36:54 - Bitcoin's Cost of Production and Market Structure00:41:58 - The Great Bitcoin Holder Rotation Explained01:00:29 - Derivatives and Options Reshaping Bitcoin Markets01:03:07 - Options Market Structure and Bitcoin Volatility01:05:51 - Control Your Decisions, Not the MarketHost: Matthew Mezinskis Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #blockchain #money
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About Crypto Voices
Podcast covering diverse trends in Bitcoin and blockchain tech, decentralization, entrepreneurship, cryptoeconomics and liberty.Author note: All authors, whose content is featured on Crypto Voices, are contacted beforehand for permission, regardless of copyright or license such as Creative Commons. If you are an author whose work is reproduced here and you have not heard from Crypto Voices, it's because we couldn't find a way to contact you. However, in this situation your work was already licensed Creative Commons, and it was so great anyway that we just couldn't wait to turn it into audio and put it up!Any questions, please write info@cryptovoices.com, we'd love to hear from you.
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