Commodity Compass - 5/1 - Grains Head Higher on Fertilizer Squeeze; UAE Leave OPEC+

This week, one of the most significant institutional developments of the Hormuz crisis arrived not with a missile strike or a diplomatic announcement — but with a formal letter. On April 28th, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC-plus alliance, effective today, May 1st. The UAE joined the organization in 1967. It has now left. The country produces roughly three and ahalf million barrels per day and represented approximately twelve percent of OPEC’s total output. The stated reason: a sovereign strategic choice to pursue its own production ambitions free of cartel constraints — a tension that hasbeen building for years but was accelerated by the Hormuz crisis and the UAE’s own experience of being attacked by Iran during the conflict. We’ll have more on what this means for oil markets in the energy section.