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- 6 days ago33 min
Circle’s ARC Token, Bitcoin’s CPI Test, and ETH's Staking Queue
In this episode, we focus on three of the biggest crypto stories of the week: Circle’s Q1 results and ARC token announcement, Bitcoin’s more nuanced setup after strong ETF demand ran into a hotter CPI print, and Ethereum’s increasingly important staking and float dynamics. Main sections (01:21 - 10:17) Circle’s Q1 results & ARC token (10:17 - 19:16) Bitcoin after CPI (19:16 - 23:12) The macro framework for crypto (23:12 - 32:18) Ethereum’s setup Speakers Colin Basco — Quantitative Strategist (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Greg Sutton — Head of Prime Trading Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- 2 weeks ago32 min
AI Risks in DeFi, the Rise of Prediction Markets, and Bitcoin’s Critical Test
We connect the week’s biggest macro and crypto stories, from Iran-driven oil volatility and the equities earnings backdrop to bitcoin’s increasingly important test near $80K. We discuss why rising spot ETF inflows and tighter float have made BTC’s rebound more meaningful, but not yet a confirmed regime shift, and why the short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to watch. We also examine the fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit, how AI may increase risk in DeFi, and why prediction markets have evolved from a niche crypto product into a multi-billion-dollar industry driven by sports, geopolitics, and changing user behavior. Main sections: (04:31 - 12:21) The macro setup (12:21 - 20:25) Bitcoin’s rebound and key levels (20:43 - 27:36) DeFi’s security problem and Mythos AI Implications (27:36 - 34:38) Prediction markets Speakers David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: https://x.com/DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- 3 weeks ago42 min
Introducing the Coinbase Advanced Podcast
In this inaugural episode of the Coinbase Advanced podcast, we break down one of the most confusing macro environments in modern history as crypto sentiment snaps back amid Middle East negotiations. The conversation explores the blurring lines between risk-on and risk-off assets, the systemic security threats posed by Anthropic’s new Mythos AI model, and recent DeFi contagion events involving Kelp DAO and Aave. We also dive into the evolution of the "Everything Exchange," examining how the introduction of 24/7 equity perpetuals, commodities trading, and institutional bitcoin accumulation are fundamentally altering the market structure for active traders. (00:00 - 04:38) Coinbase introduces its new monthly series for advanced traders alongside a look at shifting macro sentiment and the SEC’s new podcast. (04:38 - 09:07) Scott Melker discusses the breakdown of traditional "risk-off" assets and why current market conditions are the most confusing in history. (09:07 - 15:02) The team analyzes the security risks of Anthropic’s Mythos AI model and recent DeFi exploits that highlight the danger of "unknown unknowns" in smart contracts. (15:02 - 17:24) Moheeth breaks down Coinbase Advanced data showing a surge in spot volume and a widening base of unique active traders. (17:24 - 21:07) A deep dive into bitcoin accumulation trends, institutional "strong hands" taking over retail supply, and the significance of whale wallet movements. (21:07 - 31:21) The conversation shifts to the growth of derivatives, including USDC open interest rewards and the transition of Coinbase into a full-stack trading venue. (31:21 - 37:32) Scott and Moheeth explore the disruptive potential of 24/7 equity perpetuals and how 100x leverage on everything will gamify global markets. (37:32 - 41:17) The episode concludes with a look at diversifying trade flows into altcoins and commodities like gold and silver as traders seek an edge in volatile markets. Speakers: David Duong, CFA — Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Moheeth Alvi — Product Lead, Coinbase Advanced (X: @MoheethR) Scott Melker — The Wolf of Wall Street (X: scottmelker)Additional disclaimer:Listed futures and swaps are offered via Coinbase Financial Markets (“CFM”). CFM is a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) registered with the National Futures Association (NFA), and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Our offerings are available only to US residents. Trading in futures and options involves substantial risks. You should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the associated risks, and after carefully considering whether such trading is suitable in light of your investment experience, financial position, and investment objectives.Please note, not all products, such as equity perpetual contracts would be available to customers in all jurisdictions. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Apr 14, 202634 min
The Fed's Double Bind, Bitcoin's Outperformance, Hyperliquid's Edge, and Bittensor’s Governance Shock
We unpack why oil remains the key macro lens for understanding markets as renewed Iran diplomacy, elevated crude prices, stronger labor data, and sticky inflation risks continue to shape the Fed backdrop and broader risk sentiment. We discuss why Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in this environment and how we are thinking about the market in a headline-driven regime where tactical levels matter more than long-term conviction. We also break down why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases may still matter even if they look small in aggregated flow data, particularly through momentum, liquidity, and float absorption. Finally, we explore why Hyperliquid continues to strengthen its case as a weekend macro price discovery venue through oil and precious metals perps, and why Covenant’s exit from Bittensor has become a real near-term sentiment hit for TAO without necessarily invalidating the broader decentralized AI thesis.Main sections (00:41 - 07:43) The macro setup (07:43 - 16:18) Bitcoin, oil, and market structure (16:25 - 27:01) Strategy’s bitcoin buying & implications (27:01 - 29:35) Hyperliquid’s competitive edge (29:35 - 33:06) Bittensor and Covenant's exit Speakers David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: https://x.com/DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Apr 1, 202644 min
AI Agents, Ethereum’s Comeback, and Crypto-Backed Mortgages
We unpack the latest cross asset price action in response to surging oil prices and what elevated energy prices could mean for inflation, the Fed, and broader risk sentiment. We then explore why AI agents may become one of the most important structural themes in crypto, as autonomous software increasingly needs wallets, payments, settlement, and coordination rails to transact at scale. We also discuss Ethereum’s evolving institutional story, including why activity and liquidity may be re-centering around Ethereum L1 as the fee gap versus L2s narrows and upcoming upgrades improve the base layer’s execution capacity. Finally, we look at crypto’s deeper move into household finance through products like crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k) access, and why that could mark an important next phase in the asset class’s institutionalization. Key sections: (00:00 - 14:07) Iran, oil, and the macro backdrop: why the breakout above $100 in crude oil futures matters, how elevated energy prices are tightening financial conditions, and implications for risk assets. (14:07 - 20:08) Why AI agents matter for crypto: how the narrative has shifted from model training to inference, reasoning, and persistent agents, and why autonomous software may need crypto-native payments, wallets, and settlement rails to function as real economic actors. (20:08 - 27:48) Where value may accrue in the AI-agent stack: foundational rails, coordination layers, and integrity layers, plus how x402, Base, and tokens tied to agent coordination or decentralized intelligence fit into that framework. (27:48 - 37:43) Ethereum’s institutional moment and the L1/L2 narrative shift: why lower mainnet fees and upcoming upgrades may be helping activity, liquidity, stablecoins, and tokenized assets re-center around Ethereum L1. (37:43 - 42:17) Crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k)s: why crypto’s integration into core household financial products could be a meaningful next step for institutional adoption, even if the long-term structure still depends on greater regulatory clarity.Speakers: David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Mar 25, 202628 min
A New Crypto Taxonomy, Ethereum’s Supply Sink, and Tokenizing the S&P 500
In this episode, we step back from the macro noise and focus on the biggest crypto stories of the week: (03:11 - 05:18) Why tokenization, stablecoins, AI agents, and onchain commerce are emerging as core crypto infrastructure themes. Plus, Coinbase Asset Management’s tokenized bitcoin yield fund on Base and what it says about institutional demand for compliant onchain products. (05:18 - 08:51) Why Hyperliquid’s launch of an S&P 500 perpetual matters beyond a single product: the significance of securing an official S&P license, why this helps validate Hyperliquid as more than a crypto-only venue, and how it could set a precedent for more licensed benchmark exposure to move onchain. (08:51 - 18:58) Breaking down the new SEC-CFTC digital commodity taxonomy: how it reduces legal ambiguity, why that matters for institutional allocation, and why it may benefit altcoins (18:58 - 26:21) Ethereum’s emerging supply sink: why BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF changes the demand story, how staking and treasury holdings are reducing ETH’s tradable float, and why that could become increasingly important for Ethereum’s long-run supply-demand profileSpeakers: David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Mar 18, 202638 min
Crypto’s Divergence: Peak Pessimism, AI Agents, and Positive Signs for Altcoins
This week, we unpack some major crypto market themes: The Iran shock has turned oil from a background variable into an active transmission channel for inflation and volatility, complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts just as labor data quietly weakens in the background. What will the Fed do at its FOMC meeting this week? Bitcoin has outperformed U.S. equities and large‑cap tech on a risk‑adjusted basis since the start of March, helped by prior deleveraging and a cleaner positioning backdrop, which supports the view that we may be moving past “peak pessimism” – though the confirmation signal is still pending. Altcoins are showing strong relative performance, signaling a return to risk appetite, with AI-related sectors breaking out and gaining momentum following events like the Nvidia conference. That includes tokens like BItTensor’s TAO as well as Venice’s VVV. Meanwhile, Meta’s acquisition of Moltbook (a social network for AI agents) highlights the growth of agentic commerce.Speakers: David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
- Mar 10, 202631 min
Revisiting the Oil Shock from Iran, Hyperliquid’s Edge, and U.S. Inflation Risks
In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the move in oil matters for markets, inflation expectations, and the Fed. We discuss how a headline-sensitive geopolitical risk premium has made oil the key macro transmission channel again, why the duration of any supply disruption matters, and what that could mean for bitcoin if this evolves from a short-lived shock into a longer war of attrition. We also explore why crypto-native venues like Hyperliquid have benefited from weekend price discovery in oil and other macro assets, and why we think open interest matters more than raw volume when judging the durability of Hyperliquid’s moat. Finally, we lay out the key BTC levels and trading scenarios for the week ahead: why $73K remains the pivotal breakout zone, how negative gamma around $75K could accelerate a move toward $80K if reclaimed, and why we continue to favor trading the reaction at key levels rather than blindly front-running moves. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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