Cross-Asset Volatility at the Lows, the AI CapEx Reckoning & the Latest Text For CLARITY

Could oil be the catalyst that wakes cross-asset volatility?In this CF Benchmarks X Space, recorded on July 23, 2026, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA (@gxselby), is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilkoczuck; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA (@ThomasPerfumo); CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern (@sternpeter9); and special guest Craig Shapiro (@ces921), Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader and author of The Aletheia Narrative.The conversation captures markets at a genuine inflection point. With July options expiry behind us and dealer positioning near cyclical lows, the cross-asset volatility suppressed throughout the year may finally be reawakening.Craig explains his “coiled spring” framework for record-low implied correlations and traces the potential sequence of a volatility shock—from oil to rates, credit and, ultimately, equities. The group also examines why the hyperscalers’ AI capital-expenditure boom is increasingly relying on external financing rather than free cash flow—and whether that shift is beginning to strain some of the world’s most profitable companies.The discussion then turns to the CLARITY Act, including the Senate draft’s ethics provision and the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess, leaving its prospects for passage close to a coin flip.Chapters:00:00 – Introduction and Team Welcome01:55 – Meet Craig Shapiro: Two Decades on the Buy Side04:14 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin, Oil and Rates05:49 – Implied Correlations and the “Cold Spring” Effect12:15 – Semiconductors vs. Software: Where the Dispersion Lies15:38 – Hyperscalers Turn Cash-Flow Negative21:21 – AI CapEx: Payback, Funding and the Shift From Debt to Equity29:52 – The Yen Carry Trade and Dollar-Yen at 40-Year Highs35:45 – Oil, Inflation and the July CPI38:43 – Crude’s Backwardation and the 2027 Supply Glut39:59 – Can the Fed Ignore Oil? Warsh’s Next Move and the Balance Sheet46:50 – The CLARITY Act: Inside the Senate Draft and Its Ethics Provision56:12 – The Week Ahead: What We’re WatchingListen to the original X Space: https://x.com/i/spaces/1vKpPPAqaVmKEFollow the speakers and organizations on X:CF Benchmarks — @CFBenchmarks https://x.com/CFBenchmarksGabe Selby, CFA — @gxselby https://x.com/gxselbyThomas Perfumo, CFA — @ThomasPerfumo https://x.com/ThomasPerfumoPeter Stern — @sternpeter9 https://x.com/sternpeter9Craig Shapiro — @ces921 https://x.com/ces921Kraken — @krakenfx https://x.com/krakenfxNinjaTrader — @NinjaTrader https://x.com/NinjaTrader