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by Client Strategy Office
UBS On-Air: In the Now examines the events shaping our world as they unfold, with insight and discussions you may not find anywhere else
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An unexpected US intervention shows how quickly AI policy can shift from theory to tangible risk. With this year’s equity rally directly linked to AI demand expectations, we examine how a tighter US regulatory approach could impact AI spending, talent, and model leadership.
The US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with official signing scheduled later this week. Volatility may persist in the near term as markets assess the implementation and durability of the deal, but we maintain our view that resilient growth and robust earnings should continue to drive stocks higher. We continue to recommend investors hold a diversified portfolio across asset classes, sectors, and geographies.
Market swings may persist as geopolitics, rates, and funding questions collide, but the underlying buildout driving AI-linked equities remains intact, in our view. Investors should stay invested in the AI opportunity, while rotating exposure toward areas with clearer demand visibility and stronger earnings support.
US stocks fell to their lowest level in over a month as a tech-led sell-off deepened, the war in Iran showed little signs of ending, and accelerating inflation intensified Federal Reserve hike worries. But we think near-term Fed hikes remain unlikely, AI fundamentals are still strong, and a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should become clearer. Investors should stay positioned for equity gains and ensure portfolio diversification.
US stocks fell on Tuesday after an earlier rise on optimism about an imminent US-Iran deal. While the path toward a resolution is likely to be uneven, our base case is that diplomacy ultimately prevails, allowing investors to refocus on resilient economic fundamentals and robust earnings growth in both the US and Europe.
Health care has traditionally been viewed as a defensive sector, but investors should not ignore the innovative growth opportunities it offers. Supported by technological advances and a structural shift in demographics, we favor global health care and hold a positive outlook on the Longevity theme.
Equities fall on tech pressures
Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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