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TraderMerlin: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Merlin Rothfeld
A live daily podcast covering nearly every aspect of the financial markets. My guests and I cover stocks, futures, forex, cryptocurrency, real estate, long term investing and much more! Join us live on youtube at 2pm daily!
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- 2 days ago57 min
Trading Week Wrap Up! - 09/18/26
What a week. The Federal Reserve is hiking rates again, inflation remains stubborn, Washington is rewriting the rules for digital assets, Bitcoin is moving, and the Magnificent Seven are starting to tell very different technical stories. On today's TraderMerlin, we're wrapping up one of the more consequential trading weeks we've seen recently and connecting the dots between monetary policy, inflation, technology, crypto and the trades I'm personally watching. The biggest story was clearly the Federal Reserve. The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate hike in more than three years. But the quarter-point increase itself isn't the important part. The important question is: Is this one hike—or the beginning of another tightening cycle? That question became even more important after the latest inflation numbers. August CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year-over-year, while producer prices increased 0.4% for the month and 5.4% over the past year. Inflation isn't dead. And if prices continue pushing higher, the Fed may have more work to do. Meanwhile, the digital-asset world had a massive week of its own. The CLARITY Act ran into trouble in Washington, the battle over stablecoin yield and community-bank deposits intensified, and the SEC rolled out its new Innovation Exemption, opening the door for certain tokenized U.S. stocks to trade onchain through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Crypto isn't just sitting on the outside of traditional finance anymore. The infrastructure is beginning to merge. We'll break down: The Fed – Why rates went higher and what could come next Inflation – What CPI and PPI are telling us about the road ahead Digital Assets – CLARITY, stablecoins, SEC/CFTC developments and tokenization Bitcoin & Cryp
- 3 days ago57 min
Digital Asset Debrief - 09/17/26
The digital-asset world is moving fast—and this week gave us plenty to talk about. The CLARITY Act may have stalled in Congress, but regulators aren't exactly sitting around waiting. On today's TraderMerlin, we're doing a full Digital Asset Debrief, breaking down several major developments that could reshape cryptocurrency, tokenization, stablecoins and the broader financial system. Perhaps the biggest development comes from the SEC, which just introduced an Innovation Exemption designed to allow experimentation with onchain trading of tokenized U.S. stocks. Think about that for a moment. We're not talking about some theoretical blockchain project anymore. We're talking about stocks listed on major U.S. exchanges potentially being traded onchain. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are signaling that they intend to keep moving forward with digital-asset rules even though Congress failed to advance the CLARITY Act. We'll discuss: SEC Innovation Exemption – What today's announcement means for tokenized stocks and blockchain-based markets SEC & CFTC – Can regulators create meaningful crypto rules even without the CLARITY Act? The CLARITY Fallout – Where does crypto market-structure legislation go from here? Stablecoins vs. Banks – Could stablecoin yield really drain deposits from community banks and reduce small-business lending? Bitcoin Reserve – Where does the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stand, and what could it ultimately mean for Bitcoin? Tokenization – Are traditional financial markets moving onchain faster than most investors realize? Institutional Adoption – What happens when crypto stops being a separate asset class and starts becoming part of the infrastructure of Wall Street? The stablecoin debate is particularly fascinating. Banks argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits out of community banks, reducing the capital available for mortgages, agricultural loans and small-
- 4 days ago1h 0m
Rate Hikes Begin with Bill Addiss! - 09/16/26
The Fed is hiking again. For the first time in more than three years, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates today, pushing the Fed Funds target range up 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. But the bigger story isn't today's quarter-point move. It's what comes NEXT. On today's TraderMerlin, I'm joined by longtime bond trader Bill Addiss to break down today's Fed decision and what it means for the bond market, stocks, mortgages, the dollar—and your portfolio. Bill has spent decades trading fixed-income markets, so we're going beyond the headlines and looking at how professional bond traders interpret today's move. We'll discuss: Why Now? – What's forcing the Fed back into rate-hike mode? Inflation – Why stubborn prices and the recent surge in energy remain a problem The Bond Market – What the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are telling us More Hikes Coming? – Is today's move a one-and-done adjustment or the beginning of another tightening cycle? Stocks – What higher rates could mean for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and high-valuation growth stocks Mortgages & Credit – How higher rates eventually work their way through the economy The Yield Curve – What Bill is watching for clues about growth, inflation and Fed policy And there's an important twist. The Fed says economic activity remains solid, employment remains relatively strong and inflation is still too high. That gives policymakers room to fight inflation. But every additional hike increases the cost of money throughout the economy. So how far can the Fed push rates before something starts to break? That's where today's conversation with Bill gets p
- 5 days ago58 min
The Clarity Act - 09/15/26
After more than a year of negotiations, hundreds of pages of legislation and enormous pressure from the crypto industry... The CLARITY Act just hit a wall in Washington. Today, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the landmark digital-asset market structure bill, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward. And with Congress preparing to leave Washington ahead of the November midterm elections, the legislation could now be stalled for quite some time. On today's TraderMerlin, we're breaking down what happened—and more importantly, what it means for crypto markets going forward. The CLARITY Act was designed to answer one of the biggest questions hanging over the digital-asset industry: Who regulates what? For years, crypto companies have operated in a regulatory gray area between the SEC and CFTC. The CLARITY Act attempts to establish clearer rules for digital commodities, exchanges, brokers, decentralized finance and other parts of the rapidly growing digital-asset ecosystem. But today's vote wasn't simply about crypto. Political ethics, stablecoins, community banks, DeFi, anti-money-laundering rules and President Trump's involvement in digital assets all became major sticking points. We'll discuss: What Happened Today? – Why the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate SEC vs. CFTC – How the bill would reshape digital-asset regulation Bitcoin & Crypto – Why regulatory clarity matters to institutional investors Stablecoins – The growing battle between crypto companies and traditional banks DeFi – How decentralized finance fits into the regulatory debate Institutional Adoption – Does another delay slow Wall Street's move into digital assets? The Global Race – What happens if the U.S. continues debating while other countries establish clearer
- 6 days ago52 min
AI: Taming The Monster - 09/14/26
Artificial Intelligence promises to transform medicine, productivity, education, science and nearly every industry on the planet. There's just one small problem... Some of the people building the most powerful AI systems in the world are starting to worry about what they're creating. On today's TraderMerlin, we're looking at an extraordinary development in the AI race. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk—three major competitors who rarely agree on much—are suddenly finding common ground: AI may be advancing too quickly. Amodei recently called for the industry to slow the pace of frontier AI development, warning that AI capabilities have accelerated dramatically and that safety research may not be keeping pace. Even more interesting? Sam Altman agreed. Elon Musk agreed. When the CEOs racing to build the world's most powerful AI systems start talking about hitting the brakes, it's probably worth paying attention. We'll discuss: How Fast Is AI Advancing? – Why the pace of improvement is raising new concerns Anthropic's Warning – Why Dario Amodei wants more time devoted to AI safety OpenAI – Why Sam Altman says the industry may need to "pace the frontier" Elon Musk – Why one of AI's longtime critics is backing the call for caution AI Agents – What happens when AI systems begin acting increasingly independently? Jobs & Society – What happens if AI capabilities advance faster than workers and institutions can adapt? Regulation – Can governments realistically regulate technology moving this quickly? The Investment Boom – What would slower AI development mean for Nvidia, data centers, energy demand and the massive AI capital-spending cycle? </ul
- 1 weeks ago56 min
Operation "Treasury Twist" — Can Washington Stop Yields From Rising? - 09/09/26
The bond market is sending Washington a message—and the Treasury is fighting back. Long-term Treasury yields have been climbing sharply, pushing borrowing costs higher and putting pressure on everything from mortgages and corporate debt to stock-market valuations. Now the U.S. Treasury is stepping in. On today's TraderMerlin, we'll look at what I'm calling Operation "Treasury Twist"—the Treasury's decision to dramatically increase its purchases of longer-dated government bonds in an effort to improve liquidity and take some pressure off the long end of the yield curve. The Treasury just announced it will buy up to $6 BILLION of 10-to-20-year bonds, triple the size of its previous long-term operation. But there's one little problem... So far, the bond market doesn't seem impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield actually pushed toward 4.85%, while the 30-year remains above 5.2%. So we'll discuss: Treasury Buybacks – What exactly is the government doing? 10 & 30-Year Yields – Why have long-term rates been surging? Is It Working? – Why yields moved HIGHER after today's announcement Stocks – Why rising bond yields can pressure expensive growth and technology stocks Mortgages & Consumers – How the bond market filters directly into borrowing costs The Fed – How inflation, oil and interest rates complicate the picture And we'll also turn our attention to Apple! 🍎 Apple just unveiled its latest lineup, including the new iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max—along with something much more interesting: Apple's first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo. We'll look at the new products, Apple's growing AI push and, most importantly for traders: Are these products
- 1 weeks ago56 min
Oil Surge! — Is $100 Crude Coming? - 09/08/26
Oil is surging again—and geopolitical risk is back in the driver's seat. Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships. Now tensions are escalating around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. On today's TraderMerlin, we'll look at what this means for crude oil, inflation, interest rates—and ultimately your portfolio. Brent crude is now approaching $100 per barrel, while WTI has pushed above $93, as traders add another geopolitical risk premium to energy prices. But the bigger question isn't simply: How high can oil go? It's what happens NEXT if it stays there. We'll discuss: U.S.–Iran escalation – What happened and why the tanker strikes matter Strait of Hormuz – Why disruptions here can quickly impact global energy markets $100 Oil? – What's keeping crude below $100—and what could push it through Inflation – Higher oil doesn't stop at the gas pump; it flows into transportation, manufacturing, food and consumer prices The Federal Reserve – Could another energy shock complicate the Fed's fight against inflation? Stocks & Bonds – Which sectors benefit from higher crude, and which could feel the pain? Here's the problem for the Fed: Inflation is already running above its target. Now crude oil is climbing just days before another major round of U.S. inflation data. If oil keeps rising, the Fed may have an even harder time declaring victory over inflation. And with tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of disappearing, energy could become one of the biggest market stories heading into the end of 2026. Listen now:<span style= "font-family: 'Segoe UI Emoji',sans-serif; ms
- 2 weeks ago56 min
US Jobs! - 09/04/26
The latest U.S. jobs numbers are out—and apparently the labor market didn't get the memo that it was supposed to be slowing down! The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Even better, June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs. So...good news, right? Well, this is Wall Street, where good economic news can quickly become bad news for the markets. 📈📉 A stronger labor market gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to remain aggressive on inflation—and traders immediately increased their expectations for another potential interest-rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. On today's TraderMerlin, we'll break down what the jobs report actually tells us and what it could mean for stocks, bonds and interest rates. But that's just the beginning. We'll also tackle some great viewer questions: Leveraged ETFs – How do 2X and 3X ETFs actually work? Why does daily rebalancing matter, and why can their long-term performance look VERY different from simply multiplying the underlying asset's return? SpaceX Shares – Can you actually buy SpaceX stock? We'll look at the private-market options, risks and what investors need to understand before chasing "pre-IPO" shares. The Fed – Does today's employment report change the odds of another rate hike? The Week's Biggest Headlines – We'll wrap up the major stories moving stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. One number traders should pay particular attention to is wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased 3.1% over the past year—important because wages, employment and inflation all feed into the Fed's decision-making process. The question heading into September's Fed meeting is becoming pretty simple: Is the economy strong enough for the Fed to raise rates again? Today's jobs report certainly gives them more ammunition. Listen now:<span style= "font-family: 'Segoe UI Emoji',sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Segoe UI E
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