Super El Niño Explained: Why This Could Be The Worst Coastal Crisis in Decades

A "Super El Niño" is building in the Pacific, and forecasters warn the 2026–27 winter could bring some of California's most powerful storms, highest seas, and worst coastal erosion in decades. But the greater long-term threat isn't the waves — it's how we respond to them. Surfrider CEO Dr. Chad Nelsen and Dr. Charles Lester, director of UC Santa Barbara's Ocean and Coastal Policy Center, unpack what makes this El Niño so strong, and what back-to-back storms could mean for a coast where up to 70% of beaches are at risk of disappearing by 2100. This conversation centers on the knee-jerk reaction to armor shorelines with seawalls and revetments — and the "coastal squeeze" that quietly erases the beaches in front of them. Our guests explain why emergency armoring is the wrong answer to a disaster we can see coming, and make the case for pragmatic coastal adaptation. It's a clear-eyed, hopeful look at how Californians can protect their public beaches and coastal access, before the storms hit.