How do you defend an island nation when 40% of your trade flows through contested waters?

Forty percent of Australian trade flows through the South China Sea — and if conflict erupts near Taiwan, that route becomes uninsurable overnight. Maritime strategist Mark Bailey argues that Western continentalism has left island nations dangerously unprepared for the Indo-Pacific's return to its ancient strategic shape, where China and India once again compete for influence over Southeast Asia. This keynote address traces how Beijing treats the South China Sea as sovereign territory to be garrisoned, why Tokyo has quietly reorganised its navy for convoy escort, and what the Taiping Rebellion's 20–80 million dead reveal about Chinese internal fractures. This is a special seminar presentation in conjunction with the Royal Australian Artillery Historical Company's Firepower Seminar Series, "Firepower: Lessons from World War II"  Our presenter is Dr Mark Bailey, presenting our keynote presentation. Key learnings: • Why Japan restructured its fleet into three convoy escort groups anticipating wartime shipping protection • How Chinese hybrid warfare operates through United Front university networks, cyber intrusions, and fentanyl exports killing 80,000 Americans yearly • What Australia's 2023 Defence Strategic Review shares with Corbett's maritime principles Full show notes and transcript: https://theprinciplesofwar.com/ Support the podcast: https://www.patreon.com/principlesofwar More episodes: https://theprinciplesofwar.com/ Follow on X: https://x.com/surprisepodcast Subscribe for more Professional Military Education content.