Claudia Sahm: Thinking Through Scenarios in a Whiplash Economy

Our guest on the podcast today is Claudia Sahm. Claudia is chief economist at New Century Advisors, the founder of Sahm Consulting, and a regular contributor at Bloomberg Opinion. She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance. She created the Sahm rule, an automatic trigger for stimulus payments in recessions. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve, where she oversaw the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Before that, she worked for 10 years on the staff’s macroeconomic forecast. She was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Lessons From the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis 00:04:56 Making Sense of Fed-Speak 00:09:29 The “Whiplash Economy” and Understanding Risk 00:14:21 Rising Gas Prices, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Consumer Sentiment 00:18:03 Interest Rates, AI, and Fed Leadership Changes 00:29:48 Undoing the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs 00:33:34 The Sahm Rule and Recession Risk Today 00:43:56 Costs of Underfunding US Economic Data 00:49:57 “Economics Is a Disgrace” More From Morningstar Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy for Investors Michael Gates: Why More Advisors Are Migrating to Model Portfolios Q2 Market Outlook: Why a Stock Barbell Strategy Is Ideal for Today’s Market If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine’s weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.