#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing⁠Timestamps:0:00 – Preview0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies31:25 – Wrap-upThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.