Uncertainty, Intentions and Great Power Conflict — Sebastian Rosato

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.Sebastian RosatoSebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.PublicationsEurope United: Power Politics and the Making of the European CommunityIntentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of ConflictHow States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)Chapters00:00 Introduction02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ir-thinker/X: https://x.com/irthinker_Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/irthinkerfb Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.