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The Grant Williams Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Grant Williams
Join Grant Williams and his guests for a series of random walks around the fringes of finance and gain a better understanding of how the economic sands are shifting beneath our feet.
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- Yesterday55 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 136 - Marvin Barth FULL EPISODE
Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets returns to The Grant Williams Podcast for a conversation I think is particularly important—not because his recent forecast for the US midterm elections proved correct, but precisely because it didn’t. Before the election, Marvin laid out a carefully reasoned argument that conventional polling was missing a significant population of low-trust, politically disengaged voters who had gravitated towards Donald Trump. As it turned out, he was right about the polling errors but wrong about where those voters would ultimately place their support. Rather than quietly moving on, Marvin joins me to examine exactly what he missed, why those voters appear to have turned against the administration and what the result tells us about the increasingly fluid nature of American politics. We explore the apparent disconnect between voters’ support for certain policies and their rejection of the politicians advocating them, the implications for both parties, and why the Iran war may have played a decisive role in changing the political landscape. From there, we turn to the economic consequences of the election, including fiscal policy, the Federal Reserve, real interest rates and the potential for slower AI-related investment to weigh on equity markets. Above all, this is a discussion about the discipline of forecasting: the importance of identifying where your assumptions failed, separating sound reasoning from an incorrect conclusion, and being willing to change your mind when the evidence demands it. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- 6 days ago30 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 134 - Steve Clapham
In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by returning guest, forensic accountant and investment analyst Steve Clapham for a wide-ranging conversation about what happens when markets built on cheap money, leverage and compelling narratives are forced to confront a rather less forgiving financial reality. We begin with the normalisation of interest rates, the mounting cost of servicing government debt and the growing strains on US finances before turning to private equity, where Steve argues that much of the industry’s extraordinary historic performance came not from operational brilliance but from falling rates, expanding multiples and leverage—a combination that looks very different when financing costs rise and exits become harder. From there, we examine the economics of AI, including the uncomfortable gap between soaring GPU and data-centre costs and falling token prices, the valuations being attached to companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, and some intriguing features of CoreWeave’s accounts. Steve also explains why proposed changes to SEC reporting requirements could make forensic analysis—and the detection of fraud—considerably more difficult. Finally, we discuss his plans for 6040 Publishing and why, after years in which a good story could carry almost anything, markets may once again be entering an environment where cash flows, balance sheets and valuation begin to matter. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- 1 weeks ago1h 15m
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 135 - Marvin Barth FULL EPISODE
Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets returns for a fascinating conversation about the approaching US midterm elections and why he believes the consensus view of what happens in November may be resting on some very shaky assumptions. While conventional polling and political analysis point towards significant Democratic gains, Marvin has developed a very different framework based on the possibility that pollsters are systematically failing to capture a growing population of low-trust voters who are reluctant to participate in surveys but nevertheless turn out when populist candidates or issues are on the ballot. We explore the evidence behind that thesis, the limitations of polling data, and Marvin’s Bayesian-inspired approach to updating his views as new information emerges. From there, we discuss what an unexpectedly strong Republican performance might mean for Donald Trump’s remaining time in office, his Jacksonian political instincts, the Iran conflict and the possibility of meaningful fiscal reform. Along the way, Marvin explains why populism is better understood as a response to political disenfranchisement than as a conventional left-right ideology, and why the distinction between measurable risk and genuine uncertainty is particularly important when markets attempt to price events for which historical probabilities may be of little use. It’s a conversation less about predicting an election than about recognising how easily a widely accepted narrative can conceal the variables that ultimately determine what happens next. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- Sep 21, 202630 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 133 - Ian Cassel
Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins me for a fascinating conversation about investing, conviction and the advantages that can still exist for individuals willing to venture into the neglected corners of public markets. Ian’s journey began with a $20,000 family gift that he turned into $120,000 during the dot-com bubble before promptly losing 90% of it when the bubble burst—an experience which, rather than driving him away from markets, made him determined to understand what he’d got wrong. We talk about the chance investment in XM Satellite Radio that introduced him to the power of meeting management teams face-to-face, why micro-caps offer individual investors opportunities that simply aren’t available to large institutions, and the crucial difference between believing in an investment and developing genuine conviction through doing more work than everybody else. Ian also talks candidly about the things that have “chased” him throughout his life—from proving doubters wrong when he was younger to family, legacy and the growing awareness of the scarcity of time—and the lessons his mentor Skip taught him about concentration, communication and earning the attention of people from whom you want to learn. Along the way, we discuss Monster Beverage, XPEL, insider selling and some decidedly unconventional due diligence, as Ian explains why the greatest investment opportunities often look anything but obvious at the beginning—and why the beautiful long-term charts we admire afterwards conceal just how difficult those companies were to own while the story was actually unfolding. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- Sep 15, 202630 min
The End Game Ep 61 - Mike Green PREVIEW
On this episode of The End Game, Bill Fleckenstein and I welcome Mike Green for a fascinating conversation about a force that has quietly become one of the most important drivers of modern financial markets: passive investing. Mike argues that ETFs, mutual funds, target-date funds and systematic strategies increasingly function as liquidity-concentration mechanisms, mechanically directing capital into securities with little regard for price, valuation or fundamentals—and, in doing so, changing the behaviour of the markets themselves. We discuss the work behind his new firm, Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, which attempts to identify the distinctive “signature” left by these flows and use that information to construct portfolios capable of responding more intelligently to incoming liquidity. Mike walks us through some extraordinary examples of the distortions this process can create, including the role leveraged semiconductor ETFs such as SOXL have played in individual stocks and even the composition of the S&P 500, before turning to the bond market, where he believes passive investing is creating similarly important—and potentially exploitable—anomalies. The crucial question is where all this ultimately leads. Mike believes passive’s share is still growing and that we may be only a year or two away from a considerably more unstable phase, making it increasingly important to understand not what investors think should happen, but who is actually buying, why they are buying and what those mechanical flows are doing to prices. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- Sep 5, 202630 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 132 - Jared Dillian
In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Jared Dillian for a fascinating conversation about his terrific new book, The Awesome Portfolio, and a deceptively simple question: what should an investment portfolio actually be designed to achieve? Jared argues that too many investors optimise for maximum returns while paying insufficient attention to volatility, drawdowns and, crucially, their own ability to withstand losses when markets turn against them. His alternative is strikingly straightforward—a 20/20/20/20/20 allocation across stocks, bonds, gold, cash and real estate, designed to capture much of the long-term return available from equities while producing a considerably smoother journey. From there, we explore FOMO, concentration, the reluctance to take profits, the importance of creating a “life hedge” between your investments and your source of income, and why the best portfolio may ultimately be the one that allows you to spend the least amount of time worrying about it. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- Aug 28, 202630 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 131 - Andrew McDermott
In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Andrew McDermott of Mission Value Partners for a fascinating reassessment of one of the world’s most misunderstood economies. While many investors remain focused on Japan’s currency, bond market, and decades of sluggish growth, Andrew argues that these headline narratives obscure a far more important story: Japan remains one of the world’s indispensable industrial powers. Together, we explore how Japanese companies quietly embedded themselves deep within global supply chains after the trade tensions of the 1980s and 1990s, becoming world leaders in advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, robotics, defence systems, machine tools, and precision engineering. The discussion also examines the strategic consequences of a weaker yen, Japan’s evolving relationship with the United States, and why the country’s greatest investment opportunities may lie not in broad market indices but in the globally competitive industrial businesses that continue to underpin much of the modern economy. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
- Aug 24, 202630 min
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 130 - Gerard Minack
In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Gerard Minack back for a fascinating discussion about one of the most consequential questions facing investors today: whether AI represents a durable investment opportunity or an extraordinary technology surrounded by an increasingly fragile earnings boom. Gerard makes an important distinction between an earnings bubble and a valuation bubble, arguing that the extraordinary profits currently being generated by the companies supplying the AI buildout are real, but may prove far less sustainable than markets expect as Chinese competition intensifies, customers become increasingly price-sensitive, and margins inevitably come under pressure. From there, our conversation broadens into what happens if the AI trade cracks, why that needn’t necessarily produce a US recession, and where capital might flow next. Gerard’s answer leads to a compelling discussion of Japan, where improving corporate behaviour, a cheap currency, strengthening domestic fundamentals and the potential for enormous repatriation flows offer an intriguing alternative to both an expensive US market and a Chinese economy still struggling with the consequences of chronic overinvestment. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…
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