31: How the Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Could Reshape the Oil Market

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to months of volatility in the oil market, but a new memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran offered the first signs of a path toward stability. However, short-term risks for the oil market remain as a broader peace deal is discussed, and long-term questions are emerging as global suppliers and consumers seek to prevent a similar shock in the future. In this episode of “The Energy Forum,” Abhi Rajendran and Skip York explore what the market’s response reveals about the shifting foundations of global oil.   Featured: Abhi Rajendran, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/abhi-rajendran  Skip York, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/harold-skip-york   Editor’s note: This episode was recorded on July 2, 2026, when the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was still in place, and oil prices were easing; since then, on July 8, President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire “over,” and oil markets have repriced renewed geopolitical risk. You can follow @BakerInstitute and @CES_Baker_Inst on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.