Why CGT Changes Won’t Solve Australia’s Housing Crisis

Capital gains tax reform and negative gearing have become central to Australia’s housing debate—but are these policies actually capable of improving affordability?In this episode, we unpack the real role of tax settings in the property market and question whether current reform discussions are addressing the right problem.The conversation explores how capital gains tax discounts work in practice, why they exist, and what changes could mean for investor behaviour. We also dive into the broader housing ecosystem—covering rental vacancy rates, population growth, and the heavy reliance on private investors to supply rental housing. Along the way, the episode challenges the assumption that reducing investor incentives will automatically improve affordability.A key theme is unintended consequences. What happens if investors exit the market? Where does that capital go? And how might changes to CGT or negative gearing impact rental supply, development activity, and long-term housing outcomes? The discussion also touches on the rise of build-to-rent, government incentives, and the shift toward institutional investment.This episode offers a grounded, data-informed perspective for investors trying to navigate policy uncertainty. Instead of reacting to headlines, listeners are encouraged to think critically about how incentives shape supply—and why meaningful housing reform requires more than just tax changes.Episode Highlights01:20 — Meet Cameron Kusher & His Market Perspective04:41 — Investors, Rentals & Why Supply Is So Tight15:52 — Why New Build Incentives Matter More Than Ever19:41 — Foreign Capital: Help or Housing Distortion?27:11 — Tax Deductions: What Investors Actually Claim29:00 — Should Investor Tax Benefits Be Capped?30:31 — Portfolio Building: Smart Strategy or Risky Hype?32:42 — Why Incentives Should Focus on New Supply34:28 — Apartments: The Missing Piece in Supply Fix36:18 — Developer Costs: What’s Really Holding Builds Back39:07 — Government Housing: What Are the Real Options?41:21 — Rate Fears & Falling Confidence in Property45:45 — Where the Property Market Could Go Next48:12 — Build Costs and the Supply Feedback Loop49:26 — Final Thoughts & Key Takeaways for InvestorsAbout the GuestCameron Kusher is a highly respected property market analyst with decades of experience interpreting housing data and market trends across Australia. His work focuses on understanding how policy decisions, economic conditions, and demographic shifts influence real-world housing outcomes.With a background in analysing property cycles and investor behaviour, Cameron brings a practical, evidence-based perspective to complex policy discussions. He is known for cutting through political narratives and focusing on what the data actually shows—particularly when it comes to housing supply, affordability, and the role of investors in the market.His insights help bridge the gap between policy theory and market reality, making him a trusted voice for investors seeking clarity in an often noisy and opinion-driven space.Connect with CameronCameron Kusher - Independent | property market strategist | Helping real estate businesses, developers & lenders make better decisions with dataKusher ConsultingKusher Consulting’s LinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.auEnjo