Why Oil Didn't Go to $300, plus Chinese gold bugs, Copper Squeezes & Uranium Alpha with Josh Blanchfield (Avos Capital)

Jeff Malec sits down with Josh Blanchfield of Avos to trace his path from physics at Harvard, poker pro, and 11 years at Bridgewater (including co-heading the trading desk during Lehman) to running a concentrated, risk-aware commodities and macro shop. Josh explains why China is “ground zero” for global commodities, detailing how its import cuts, stockpiling, and scrap policies have shaped oil, copper, gold, and uranium, and why understanding flows and participant behavior matters more than neat top-down supply-demand models. He breaks down how Avos blends macro with very granular micro, like Chinese spec flows around Lunar New Year, refinery outages, crack spreads, and uranium’s inelastic buyers, to build convex, options-heavy trades that aim to capture upside tails while avoiding the classic commodity-fund blowup. Along the way, they dig into the realities of radical transparency at Bridgewater, the limits and promise of AI as a “research team we never hired,” the risks of an AI-driven labor shock, the true drivers of the dollar’s dominance and petrodollar fears, why he’s skeptical on small modular reactors but bullish nuclear, and how his Substack and broader investment philosophy challenge received wisdom on everything from munis to equity valuations. - SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:19= Intro01:20-09:01= From Boulder Trails to China’s Oil Trap: Josh’s Origin Story and DB Cooper Commodities09:02-19:27=China’s Dollar Dilemma, Gold Grab, and the Real Story Behind Commodity Power19:28–30:36 = From Poker Tables to Lehman’s Collapse: Josh’s Bridgewater Baptism by Fire30:37–37:57 = AI, Jobs, and Impossible Growth: Rethinking the Macro Behind the Magnificent Seven38:38–49:04 = Gold Flows, Burning Refineries, and the Uranium Edge49:05–56:26 = Capacity, Convexity, and Why Small Nuclear Isn’t So Small56:27–01:09:15 = Munis, Myths, and Moneyball: Josh’s Skeptical Playbook and Pop-Culture LensFrom the Episode:PODCAST:“Dr. Copper”: From Chilean Mines to Chinese Smelters to AI Data Centers in the US – with Kurt Nelson &amp; Natalie Scott-GrayPODCAST:Going Nuclear: How Uranium is Powering Portfolios with Trevor Hall &amp; Justin HuhnPODCAST:OpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are FaceshotsBLOG:The Definitive List of the Best Investing MoviesFollow along with Josh and Avos ⁠on LinkedIn and Substack, and be sure to check out avos.co to learn more about what they are up to.Don&#39;t forget to subscribe to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Derivative⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, follow us on Twitter at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@rcmAlts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sign-up for our blog digest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.<