Help Me Understand: Who Stayed Home

Help Me Understand with Dr. Rod Berger, solo episode. In a year Democrats won across the country, Tennessee Republicans kept the governor's office, kept their supermajority in the state House and took a congressional seat that used to be safely blue. Each of those wins came by a margin a red state never used to need. A caller to The People's Hotline admits she used to skip the midterms. Dr. Rod Berger follows that admission through the redrawn Ninth Congressional District, three Republican losses in Rutherford County and a governor's race decided by about two and a half points, and asks how much of an election is people changing their minds, and how much is people changing whether they come. In this episode 0:00 A caller to The People's Hotline 0:49 The new Ninth District, on NewsChannel 5 1:17 Two admissions, and who showed up 2:05 Here's what happened, in order 3:07 The strongest case that nothing changed 3:31 She owned hers 5:19 Rutherford County, on FOX 17 6:02 Arrival or absence 6:58 How close the governor's race came, on FOX 17 7:21 What's gone is the cushion 8:01 Put the three side by side 8:36 The part that lands on Rod 9:26 Questions to sit with Questions this episode answers How did Tennessee's Ninth Congressional District change? Earlier this year, the legislature redrew it. It used to be Memphis. Now it runs about two hundred miles east, into the suburbs south of Nashville, including part of Williamson County. Who won the Ninth District? Republican Brent Taylor, by about 2,500 votes. In the part of Williamson County inside the district, about six in ten voters chose him, a margin of about 10,000 votes. Did Democrats gain ground in Tennessee in 2026? Yes. They flipped six seats in the state House, though Republicans still hold 68 of 99, a supermajority. Marsha Blackburn won the governor's race by about two and a half points, in a state Donald Trump carried by almost 30 points in 2024. In the Fourth District, Victoria Broderick led Scott DesJarlais by about 280 votes, and the Associated Press had not called the race when the episode was recorded. Why did three Republicans lose in Rutherford County? The parties tell it two ways. Democrat Rachel Campbell points to new voters. Republican Steve Gill says his own voters stayed home. The episode argues both can be true, and that the precinct-level data to settle it isn't out yet. What does turnout have to do with it? In Williamson County, about 54 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, by the county's unofficial count. The episode's case is that Tennessee's cushion was the people who used to show up without thinking about it. Sources NewsChannel 5 (WTVF), Nashville, November 3, 2026 FOX 17 (WZTV), Nashville, November 4, 2026 The Commercial Appeal, November 4, 2026 Tennessee Lookout, November 4, 2026 WPLN, November 4, 2026 WSMV, November 4, 2026 Williamson County Election Commission, unofficial summary, November 3, 2026 Tennessee Secretary of State, 2024 presidential results About the host Dr. Rod Berger has conducted more than 4,000 interviews across five continents. He is Editor-at-Large at Fair Observer and the author of The Narrative Edge: Authentic Storytelling That Meets the Moment (Wiley). Some episodes of Help Me Understand feature his friend Marshall Herskovitz, the Emmy-winning writer, director and producer. Visit drrodberger.com · Get The Narrative Edge in hardcover Help Me Understand is part of The Dangerous Ones Network. Have something you're trying to understand? Call The People's Hotline and leave a message: 503-212-4600.