The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Might Be The Democrats’ Best Midterm Asset + It’s Been A Strange Campaign Season…

October 7, 2026·1h 27m
Episode Description from the Publisher

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks.  Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go 06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand 08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance 11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade 14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump 19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip 21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot 25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters 30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine 35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset  37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip 38:30 #1 North Carolina 39:15 #2 Alaska 41:00 #3 Ohio 42:45 #4 Texas 44:30 #5 Maine 46:30 #6 Kansas 47:15 #7 Iowa 49:00 #8 Michigan 52:00 #9 Nebraska 54:15 #10 South Carolina 59:00 Ask Chuck 59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists? 1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center? 1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum? 1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective? 1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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