How to Make Better Decisions Without More Information with David Samuelson and Mary Call Blanusa

Leading the Alliance for Decision Education's work to make decision science part of core curriculum are David Samuelson, the organization's Executive Director, and Mary Call Blanusa, its Director of Public Policy. Samuelson spent his career leading digital transformation at national associations before turning to teaching students and school leaders the skills to navigate uncertainty — the same skills, he says, that make a good sailor in unpredictable water. Blanusa brings two decades of education policy and philanthropy experience, including co-designing decision-making courses with state systems like the Tennessee Board of Regents. Together they're building the research, courses, and district partnerships that treat decision making as a teachable skill, not an innate trait. A principal ignored a direct order from central office — and made the right call anyway. This post breaks down the decision-making process that got him there: how to turn gut feelings into percentages, separate good decisions from good outcomes, and keep your judgment sharp as AI takes over more of the thinking for you. 🧲 What You'll Learn How to turn vague words like "maybe" and "highly likely" into percentages your whole team agrees on. Why judging decisions by their outcomes alone will wreck your team's confidence in a good process. The weight-and-rate framework David and Danny used to decide whether to defy a district directive. Why decision-making skills now show up explicitly in 41% of job postings nationally. What "don't give your agency to an agent" means for how you use AI in your building. 🖊️ Breaking Down the Old Rules 👀 Key Insight #1: Why Vague Language Kills Good Decision Making What's broken: Leaders use words like "maybe" and "highly likely" as if they mean the same thing to everyone in the room. The shift: Assign an actual percentage to the word — "highly likely" might be 95% to one person and 80% to another — so the team is agreeing on a number, not a vibe. Impact: A goal like "highly likely to graduate 95% of students" only works as a shared commitment once everyone has agreed on what "highly likely" actually means. 💟 Key Insight #2: How to Separate Decision Quality From Outcomes What's broken: Principals get judged — and judge themselves — on how a decision turned out, not on how it was made. The shift: Evaluate the process (the options you considered, the criteria you weighted, the probabilities you assigned) as a separate question from whether things happened to work out. Impact: A slow, evidence-based call — like keeping two struggling teachers in place with more support instead of transferring them — can be the right decision even before you know how it ends. 💡 Key Insight #3: Why AI Makes Decision-Making Skills Non-Negotiable What's broken: Schools are handing students and staff more AI tools without teaching the judgment to question what those tools produce. The shift: Treat decision making and media literacy as explicit, teachable skills — how to ask AI for the counterfactual, spot a confirming answer, and decide what to hand off to an agent versus what to keep for yourself. Impact: Decision-making skills already appear explicitly in 41% of job postings nationally, and hiring managers treat them as table stakes even where they aren't listed. 🎧 DAVID & MARY QUOTES FROM THE RUCKUSCAST "Don't give your agency to an agent. Keep your agency and choose what you want to give an agent to do. And that is empowering." — David Samuelson "Your life depends on your decisions." — Mary Call Blanusa "The process used correctly is always going to be better than the process not used at all." — David Samuelson "The quality and success that you experience in life comes down to two things: luck and the quality of your decisions. You can't change luck, but you can always improve the quality of your decisions." — Mary Call Blanusa "Stop and think. When in doubt, stop and think with curiosity." — David Samuelson 🚵‍♀️ Your Do School Different Challenge Ready to implement? Start here: Tomorrow: Run the words-to-probabilities exercise at your next leadership meeting — have each person put a number on "highly likely," "maybe," and "un