Denver Summit Host Portland Thorns: The Table Says Portland. The Numbers Say Otherwise.

Portland is 3rd in the NWSL. Denver is 11th. Eleven points apart. I ran the numbers anyway, and Portland's expected-goal difference is actually worse than Denver's — the third-place team is being outplayed by the underlying process of the eleventh-place team. I built two match models this week, and they don't agree on who wins Saturday.Along the way: why neither team has won a match this season after conceding first, the Arnold-versus-Smith goalkeeper battle that's closer than either club's record suggests, and what it means that Centennial Stadium opens its gates for the first time with Lindsey Heaps making her Summit debut against the club where she won a championship. Fresh audio from training this week — Heaps, head coach Nick Cushing, and club president Jen Millet.Denver Summit FC vs. Portland Thorns kicks off Saturday, July 18 at noon Mountain, at Centennial Stadium. Full recap drops Tuesday.The 5280 Weekly newsletter and full archive — 5280pitch.com@5280pitch on Instagram & ThreadsMerch — 5280-pitch-shop.fourthwall.comDenver Summit FC. Women's soccer at altitude.