What I Bet - Thursday April 30th

Griffin Warner talks betting for Thursday. Griffin Warner returns for Episode 33 of What I Bet with a full Thursday betting card breakdown across Major League Baseball and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The show opens with a quick look back at a winning Chicago Cubs underdog pick before moving into a busy MLB slate led by Detroit at Atlanta, where Framber Valdez as a plus money underdog against Bryce Elder immediately catches Griffin’s attention. The Braves have been dangerous offensively, with Ronald Acuña Jr. heating up and the bullpen holding together better than expected after Raisel Iglesias went on the injured list, but Detroit’s matchup still creates value because Griffin likes backing Framber Valdez in underdog roles. From there, the card shifts to St. Louis at Pittsburgh, where Hunter Dobbins faces Paul Skenes and the under becomes the main question if Dobbins can do enough to support the low total. Houston at Baltimore brings Peter Lambert against Chris Bassitt, and Griffin points to Bassitt’s struggles, Houston’s strong hitting, and the Astros’ pitching problems as reasons over nine could be live. Colorado at Cincinnati gives Andrew Abbott another important test against the Rockies, with Griffin noting that Cincinnati has not yet played in the kind of heat that can punish a fly ball pitcher. Washington at the New York Mets becomes a run line discussion, as Griffin is not eager to lay a big price with the Mets and instead finds Washington plus one and a half runs more interesting with Miles Mikolas facing Freddy Peralta. The strongest MLB position comes in Arizona at Milwaukee, where Michael Soroka faces Brandon Woodruff. Griffin likes the Brewers at minus 120, pointing to Woodruff’s improved control, Soroka’s durability concerns, and Arizona’s early body clock spot. Kansas City against the Athletics in Sacramento brings interest in both the Royals and under nine and a half, with Griffin pushing back on the idea that the park should already be priced like peak summer conditions. Toronto at Minnesota closes the baseball portion, with Kevin Gausman against Bailey Ober and the under drawing some attention despite concerns about Minnesota’s bullpen. The NHL playoff section begins with Dallas at Minnesota, where Griffin has a live viewing perspective after attending multiple games in the Stars and Wild series. He believes Minnesota has looked like the better team overall and is more drawn to the total than the Dallas side. Edmonton at Anaheim closes the betting breakdown, with the Oilers trying to stay alive and the Ducks holding a 3 to 2 series lead. Griffin expects strong Edmonton fan support in Anaheim, questions whether Connor McDavid is fully healthy, and says Anaheim plus money is tempting after a competitive series. The episode finishes with a Pregame promo code and the official What I Bet best bet, Milwaukee Brewers minus 120 behind Brandon Woodruff. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices