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by The Cipher Brief
State Secrets is a weekly interview podcast featuring Cipher Brief experts and national security leaders.
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- 2 weeks ago41 min
Russia's Invisible War: Drones, Sabotage, and the Fight for Europe
Russia's war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow's expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO's ability to respond. In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief's Gray Zone Group. Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO's defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough. As Russia's shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?
- 4 weeks ago39 min
A Decade of Warning Signs: How America's Threats Have Changed
A 10th ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL EDITION of the State Secrets Podcast with Suzanne Kelly and Brad Christian as they share the behind-the-scenes stories from the past decade as The Cipher Brief prepares to host the Cipher Brief Threat Conference. From a world where terrorism was front and center and AI was still a curiosity, to today's world, where China remains the pacing threat, and is buoyed by rapidly emerging technology and a new alignment with Russia, Iran and North Korea.
- Sep 29, 202651 min
The Changing Character of War: Inside the Future Battlefield
In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired U.S. Army General Bryan Fenton, former commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, for a wide-ranging conversation about the changing character of war — and what the United States will need to stay ahead on the battlefield of the future. After 38 years in uniform and a career spent across the special operations community, Fenton brings a unique perspective on how warfare is evolving. He explains what he sees more clearly now from outside government, including the growing role of America's private sector in developing technologies and capabilities that could prove critical to national security. Drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine, Fenton describes a future battlefield where exquisite, billion-dollar military systems operate alongside enormous numbers of cheaper, attritable systems. From autonomous drones in the air to uncrewed vehicles on land, on the surface of the ocean and underwater, he explains why scale, autonomy and the ability to integrate these technologies could fundamentally reshape how militaries fight. Kelly and Fenton also explore what a special operations force built for this new era might look like, how artificial intelligence, cyber and space are changing the equation, and whether the long-held special operations principle that "humans are more important than hardware" can survive in an increasingly autonomous world. The conversation expands beyond the battlefield to China's growing economic, diplomatic and military power, competition in the gray zone, foreign information operations and the role special operations can play below the threshold of conventional conflict. Fenton also makes the case that America's economic strength, private capital, manufacturing base and culture of innovation are inseparable from its national security. At the center of it all is deterrence. For Fenton, the ultimate measure of military strength isn't whether America can fight the next great power war — it's whether the United States and its allies can remain capable enough that an adversary decides not to start one in the first place. Today's Sponsor is Two Six Technologies: https://twosixtech.com/products/sentr
- Sep 22, 202643 min
The Making of the Modern Middle East
In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with award-winning historian and bestselling author Simon Sebag Montefiore to discuss his new book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East — a sweeping history of roughly 125 years that traces how the region became what it is today. Drawing on a lifetime of research, writing and travel throughout the Middle East, Montefiore explains why he wanted to write a book that brought the region's complicated history together in one story — from the final years of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of modern Saudi Arabia to the creation of Israel, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, America's growing role in the region and the power struggles shaping the Middle East today. Kelly and Montefiore explore some of the central arguments in The Cauldron, including why he believes the familiar story that Western powers simply drew arbitrary borders after World War I and created the modern Middle East is incomplete. Instead, he puts greater emphasis on the agency of the region's own leaders, peoples and empires and tells much of that history through the larger-than-life personalities who shaped it. The conversation moves from Ibn Saud, Atatürk, Reza Shah and David Ben-Gurion to Gamal Abdel Nasser and Ayatollah Khomeini, while also examining the historical forces behind Iran's role in the region, Russia's centuries-old interests in the Middle East and the challenges outside powers have repeatedly faced when trying to shape events there. At its core, The Cauldron is an effort to answer a deceptively simple question: How did we get here? Montefiore explains why understanding that history may not allow us to predict what happens next — but can give us critical context for understanding the people, decisions and forces driving the Middle East today.
- Sep 15, 202644 min
How America's Adversaries Manipulate What You See Online
America's adversaries are fighting a war designed to shape what people see, believe, share—and ultimately do. Russia, China and Iran are investing billions of dollars in influence operations intended to divide Americans, weaken alliances and alter real-world decisions, often without firing a shot. Artificial intelligence is now giving those campaigns unprecedented speed, scale and precision. In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly speaks with Shawn Chenoweth, the National Security Council's Director for Cognitive Advantage, about the escalating war for perception. Chenoweth explains how foreign powers exploit legitimate grievances, amplify American voices and manipulate social media networks to influence public behavior—sometimes without the people involved realizing they are being used. They also examine why America abandoned much of its influence infrastructure after the Cold War, how adversaries may be targeting opposition to U.S. data centers and AI development, and why determining who controls the information environment could become one of the defining national security contests of our time. As Chenoweth warns, America is taking "face shots every day" in this arena—and it is time to start fighting back.
- Sep 8, 202632 min
The Future of Intelligence in the Age of AI | VADM Trey Whitworth
Artificial intelligence, drones and commercial satellites are transforming the way intelligence is collected, analyzed and used — but as technology delivers answers faster than ever, how do intelligence professionals make sure those answers are actually right? In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired Vice Admiral Trey Whitworth, former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and former Director for Intelligence on the Joint Staff, to discuss how emerging technology is changing intelligence and the character of modern warfare. Whitworth explains his concept of "drones, codes and spacecraft," why AI could fundamentally change the intelligence cycle, and the danger of what he calls a "veneer of understanding" — having information at our fingertips without the expertise or rigor needed to truly understand it. The conversation also explores source validation in the age of AI, the changing nature of deterrence, NGA's role in warning and targeting, the growing importance of commercial satellite imagery, and Whitworth's move from government into the private sector.
- Aug 25, 202635 min
Held Hostage by Iran: What Emad Shargi Wants America to Understand
Iranian-American businessman Emad Shargi spent more than five years detained in Iran, enduring solitary confinement, brutal interrogations, a mock execution and a 10-year prison sentence after being accused of cooperating with the United States. Now, Shargi joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly to tell the extraordinary story of his arrest, imprisonment, attempted escape from Iran and eventual release — and to offer a stark warning about how the Iranian regime operates. Shargi describes the night IRGC intelligence agents raided his family's home in Tehran, his detention inside the notorious Evin Prison and the pressure he faced to falsely confess to being a CIA spy. He also recounts an attempted escape from Iran after being sentenced to a decade in prison — an effort that ended when he was captured near the Iraqi Kurdistan border and returned to IRGC custody. But this conversation goes beyond his years in prison. Drawing on his firsthand experience with the Iranian security apparatus, Shargi explains why he believes Washington must fundamentally rethink how it deals with Tehran, the role economic pressure can play in weakening the regime and why he believes the Iranian people ultimately have the will to demand change. "You cannot negotiate with a cult of death," Shargi tells The Cipher Brief.
- Aug 18, 202636 min
Gen. David Petraeus: The U.S. Must Prepare for a Revolution in Warfare | Iran, Ukraine, China & Drones
Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly for a wide-ranging conversation about the wars reshaping the global security landscape — and why the United States needs to fundamentally rethink how it prepares for the conflicts of the future. From the war with Iran and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine to China's military calculations over Taiwan, Petraeus explains how drones, autonomous weapons and rapidly changing battlefield technology are transforming warfare faster than many military institutions can adapt. On Iran, Petraeus examines whether there is a realistic path to ending the conflict, why maintaining economic and maritime pressure on Tehran matters, and how Iran's missiles and drones have changed the threat to U.S. forces, regional partners and some of the world's most critical energy infrastructure. He also warns against believing the United States can simply disengage from the region. "Trying to leave the Middle East for the United States is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia," Petraeus says. "You just keep getting sucked back in." The conversation then turns to Ukraine, which Petraeus describes as a "laboratory for the future of war." He explains how drones have transformed the battlefield, why traditional weapons such as artillery and tanks face new vulnerabilities, and how autonomous systems could soon usher in another dramatic shift.
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