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Sharkey, Howes & Javer: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Sharkey, Howes and Javer
At Sharkey, Howes & Javer, we have formal Investment Committee meetings. Every two weeks, we discuss recent market trends, the economy and strategize for the future. Within each of these meetings, Larry Howes provides a very interesting and detailed report on the economy. We have decided to open these internal economic discussions up to our clients by creating a new “series” where we record the economic portion of the investment meetings, and invite you to listen along with us.
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- Today9 min
Inside the Economy: Jobs, S&P 500, and A.I. Mini Bubble
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss jobs, the S&P 500 growth and earnings, and the A.I. mini bubble. Real wage growth remains higher for job-changers than for job-stayers, but a low-hire, low-fire labor market could make switching jobs much riskier. With employers potentially holding all the cards, is staying put the safest bet, or could loyalty be costing you? Payroll growth has steadily cooled across official Bureau of Labor Statistics and Automatic Data Processing metrics, yet Bank of America's internal deposit data reveals a rebound in labor market resilience. With official reports pointing to possible slowing labor market, could this hidden surge in bank data be a false alarm, or could it be a sign of a stronger labor market than previously realized? Big Tech’s A.I. expansion appears to be increasingly being fueled by leverage, with quarterly long-term debt issuance reaching historic highs in 2026. With tech giants and infrastructure companies leaning heavily on borrowed money to fund the AI boom, what could this debt-fueled race mean over the long-run? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Crude oil dropped to $86.82 per barrel PCE Core at 3.1% (YoY) Q3 GDP growth estimate at 3.4%
- 2 weeks ago13 min
Inside the Economy: Wages, Housing, and U.S. Equities
This week on Inside the Economy, we examine wages, housing, and U.S. equities. According to the Weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator, labor market stress remains minimal, with conditions characterized by low hiring and low firing. What impact could AI innovations have on the labor market, and is U.S. manufacturing employment showing signs of growth? On the services side of the economy, which represents a larger share of the U.S. economy, inflation is running at approximately 3.2%. With another Federal Reserve rate hike possible this year, could tighter monetary policy help bring services inflation down? In U.S. equity markets, foreign investors have increasingly shifted their focus from Treasuries to equities, with equity investments now exceeding Treasury investments. Meanwhile, what does the U.S. government's equity portfolio look like? The S&P 500 has pulled back over the past few weeks but still appears slightly overvalued relative to earnings. How much has AI contributed to the index’s gains since the introduction of ChatGPT? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Head CPI Inflation at 3.7% (YOY) 10-year Bond at 4.96% S. Pending Home Sales Index dropped 7.3% in September to a reading of 66.0
- 4 weeks ago14 min
Inside the Economy: Personal Income, S&P 500 and Bond Yields, and Tax Revenue
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss personal income, the S&P 500, bond yields, and tax revenue. Persistent inflationary pressures and slow wage growth continue to catch up with American consumers, appearing to hit hourly wage earners the hardest. However, how fast your personal income grows depends on the state you live in. While North Dakota’s personal income contracted to -4.2% from the first quarter to end of second quarter of 2026, Wisconsin’s surged ahead at 6.2%. Where does Colorado fall on the spectrum? At first glance, recent core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation looks to have cooled, however, recent government updates revised earlier inflation figures downward, showing that price pressures were slightly lower than initially reported. What could this mean for price pressures moving forward? On the home front, U.S. property owners are in a strong financial position compared to recent years, with nearly 75% of mortgages reportedly having a loan-to-value ratio of 60% or less. What could this financial cushion mean for home prices? Lastly, U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion as of August 2026, marking one of the largest gaps in recent years while highlighting how U.S. imports continue to outpace U.S. exports. What could this mean for the economy? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: PCE Core at 3.0% YoY S. Tax Revenue stands at 19.5% of GDP 30-Year Mortgage at 7.40%
- Sep 30, 20269 min
Inside the Economy: Inflation, Business and Systems, and Office Spaces
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the different aspects of inflation, business and systems, and office spaces. Total U.S. household debt, which includes mortgages, auto loans, student loans, credit cards and more, has gradually increased over the years. But how much of that increase might be attributed to inflation? Has household debt grown faster than the overall cost of goods and services? M2, which includes highly liquid assets that can be converted into currency quickly, has grown to a four-year high. In 2023, M2 was declining, which can be viewed as a positive for inflation as money was being taken out of the system. Since then, M2 has returned to positive growth. If money had continued to be removed from the economy, where might inflation be today? We also take a closer look at what is driving the current inflation cycle, and how government revenues, spending, and fiscal policy might affect inflation. What options does the government have to increase revenues, and how could those changes affect the economy? Lastly, U.S. business activity has expanded at its fastest pace since 2021. Are both manufacturing and services seeing an increase in new orders and output? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: 10-year Bond at 5.18% Total household debt is at $18.8 trillion in Q2 2026 Federal Budget Balance in Q2 at -5.6%
- Sep 16, 20269 min
Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Debt, Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and California Utilities
This week on Inside the Economy, we examine the latest trends shaping consumer spending, debt, inflation, corporate profits, and the utility sector. On the consumer front, retail sales have maintained a steady upward trajectory throughout this year, with a narrow gap between total retail sales and total retail sales ex gasoline. Could this mean gasoline’s impact on the overall direction of consumer spending is minimal? At the same time, revolving consumer credit has crossed the $1 trillion threshold, fueled by years of post-pandemic borrowing. Meanwhile, as sticky inflation persists, the Federal Reserve is slated to announce its interest rate decision this week, with bond markets reflecting expectations for a potential rate move. What could this mean for consumers and the stock market? On the corporate side, U.S. profit upgrades have now extended for a 21st consecutive week. This momentum may reflect improving expectations for corporate earnings as upward earnings revisions outpace downgrades. Finally, California utility companies suffered a sharp sell-off in late August and September 2026, wiping out months of solid gains. What was the reasoning and could we see a potential reversal? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: 30-year Bond at 5.37% Crude Oil at $103.76 per barrel Headline CPI at 3.4% YoY
- Sep 2, 202611 min
Inside the Economy: Real Estate, Banks, Markets, and Money in the Global System
This week on Inside the Economy, we address the real estate market, banks, markets, and money in the global system. The estimated number of U.S. home sellers exceeds the number of buyers in the market by a ratio of 3 to 2. With home prices still relatively high, how could changes in interest rates affect consumers and the housing market? On the banking side, delinquencies have remained low over the past several years. Where do bank reserves and income stand when it comes to overall bank strength? Manufacturing activity in the U.S. was slow in the post-covid environment. Have we started to see a pickup in activity, and what could that mean for the stock market? From a fixed income perspective, corporate bond spreads continue to tighten. Are new issues coming to the marketplace? 30-year yields have touched a multiyear high, driven by inflation and borrowing costs, raising concerns. How do today’s yields compare with levels seen before the Great Recession? Finally, U.S. public debt has reached $40 trillion, while deficit spending is growing at approximately 6%. Where is the public debt concentrated, and what are net interest payments as a percentage of GDP in the U.S.? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: 10-year Bond at 4.67% S. net interest payments as a percentage of GDP at 3.5% U.S. imports to Canada at $453.6B in 2025
- Aug 19, 202610 min
Inside the Economy: Housing Market, Consumers, and the Job Market
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, consumer debt, and the current job market. Consumer spending is up right alongside total household debt, which has hit record highs for both housing and other loans. With mortgage late payments ticking up just a bit and foreclosures staying well below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, what does this higher level of borrowing mean for the economy? On the housing front, while long term indexes show a post pandemic leap, recent data reveals that median asking rents have cooled to sit about 4% below their 2022 peak. Could this be temporary breathing room for tenants, or perhaps a sign of a broader shift in the rental market? Meanwhile, in the workforce, prime age (24-54 years old) labor force participation has held strong while the overall participation rate has dipped recently, and the labor share of income has trended downward to historic lows. What are these shifting workforce dynamics possibly signaling about our economy? Shifting to what was previously the hottest topic, large tariff refunds have pushed net government receipts below zero, turning tariff collections into a sudden cash boost for the economy. Could this unexpected influx of cash provide a welcome boost to growth, or perhaps will it just add to the national deficit and fuel inflation? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline rate at 3.4% Initial jobless claims register at 200,000 Crude Oil priced at $82.82 per barrel
- Aug 5, 20269 min
Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Interest Rates, World Markets, and Oil
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore consumer spending, interest rates, world markets, and where oil stands today. Recent data shows consumer spending continues to be elevated while wage increases are slowing, with wage earners feeling the pressure. Households earning $125,000 or less are beginning to experience greater financial strain, but is this a temporary squeeze or could it be the start of a broader shift in consumer behavior? Homes currently on the market are taking longer to sell, and prices have come down somewhat. Would another increase in interest rates push prices down even further, and would that be a good thing for the overall health of the real estate market? Foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets have changed over time. In 2010, foreign investors held 33 percent of U.S. equities. What is that share in 2026? U.S. imports from Asia have risen significantly, but that growth is increasingly coming from countries other than China, while imports from China have declined to their lowest level in years. Which other countries are exporting more to the U.S., and what might the future hold for the trade relationship between the U.S. and China? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: 30-year Mortgage at 6.66% S&P 500 Net Profit Margin expected to be 15.7% in Q2 2026 S. GDP growth rate at 1.5% in Q1
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About Sharkey, Howes & Javer
At Sharkey, Howes & Javer, we have formal Investment Committee meetings. Every two weeks, we discuss recent market trends, the economy and strategize for the future. Within each of these meetings, Larry Howes provides a very interesting and detailed report on the economy. We have decided to open these internal economic discussions up to our clients by creating a new “series” where we record the economic portion of the investment meetings, and invite you to listen along with us.
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