Forecasting AI's Impact on the Economy with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus, joins Kevin Frazier to unpack new forecasts on how AI could reshape the labor market over the next decade.The conversation centers on a striking divergence between Metaculus forecasts and projections from institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics—raising fundamental questions about whether existing tools for understanding the economy can keep pace with rapid technological change.Deger walks through key findings from the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, including:A potential decline in overall employment by 2035Increased pressure on entry-level workers and early-career pipelinesThe emergence of “lean” firms generating more value with fewer employeesA counterintuitive “wage paradox,” where fewer jobs may coincide with higher wagesThe growing role of political power, regulation, and licensing in shaping labor outcomesThe discussion also explores second-order effects, including how contraction in high-paying sectors could ripple through local economies, and what a shift away from traditional four-year degrees might mean for students and policymakers.Finally, Deger situates these forecasts within a broader vision: forecasting as a form of epistemic infrastructure. As AI accelerates change, the ability to form accurate beliefs about the future—and update them quickly—may become a core component of effective governance.*** - This episode was recorded on April 23, 2026. Metaculus is a live platform. It's likely that forecasts mentioned have subsequently changed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.