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by Jan Růžička
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Budoucnost se nerodí v Evropě. Rodí se v Lagosu, Karáčí a Dillí. V roce 2075 bude třetina lidstva žít v Africe, Pákistán bude třetí nejlidnatější zemí světa a Evropa zestárne v bohatý skanzen rentiérů. Druhý díl: demografie a co z ní plyne pro peněženku, důchod i geopolitiku.
Jižní Korea s plodností 0,7. Čína ztratí 216 milionů pracujících do 2050. Niger má mediánový věk 15 let, Německo 46. Afrika ztrojnásobí populaci, Evropa drží už jen díky migraci. Procházíme čísla, která rozhodnou o důchodech, HDP a globální moci v 21. století — a vysvětlujeme, proč žádný Volcker tentokrát nepřijde.
Třikrát větší ropný šok než v roce 1973, kolaps Hormuzu o 97%, pojistné tankerů vyletělo 60×, strategické rezervy se rozpouštějí nejrychleji v historii. Amerika na krizi paradoxně vydělává, Rusko inkasuje miliardy navíc a Evropa nahradila jednu závislost druhou. Proč je rok 2026 horší než 70. léta — a proč Volckerova pilulka tentokrát neexistuje.
Sedm týdnů operace Epic Fury, zhroucené rozhovory v Islámábádu a zavřený Hormuz. Ropa nad 100 dolarů, Rusko bohatne, Čína se směje a Trump má 37 % podpory. Rekapitulujeme dva nejdivočejší týdny války v Íránu — satiricky, ale s daty.
China produces over one-third of global industrial output. That’s not a trend. That’s a structural fact. Plus China keeps growing—but also keeps hitting constraints: weak consumption, high savings, terrible demographics and pressure to shift its model. So, will it find enough energy to jump over the U.S?
Russia hasn’t collapsed. But that doesn’t mean it works. Inflation, hidden debt and improvisation define the current model. And sanctions do work—just not the way the West expected. Russia has found detours via China, third countries and the global grey zone. The key question is not whether Russia survives, but how long it can finance the war without structural damage.
War is not just geopolitics. It is also a large-scale fiscal experiment. The only real question: who ends up making money? Trump says high oil prices are great for the U.S. The Fed may be less enthusiastic. Inflation, debt and the dollar are back in play—again.
General Yaakov Amidror joined the Israeli military before the Six-Day War in 1967, serving on the front lines in the Sinai. He later fought in the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and spent two decades in the IDF, including senior command positions. He then went into politics, most recently serving as Israel’s National Security Advisor. There are few people better placed to explain what is happening in the Middle East today and Israel’s strategy toward Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
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Vítejte u našeho podcastu! Jeden z nás je businessman, druhý trader, a spolu se bavíme o ekonomii, financích, politice a mezinárodních vztazích. Děláme taky rozhovory s lidmi z celého světa: od Hongkongu po New York. Podcast je někdy česky, někdy anglicky. Btw, nemáme paywall ani se vám nesnažíme nic prodat. Na X (Twitter) nás najdete jako @janruzijan & @kweenolog.Welcome to our podcast! One of us is a businessman, the other is a trader, and we talk about macro, finance, politics, and international affairs. We also interview interesting people from all over the world, starting in Hong Kong and finishing in New York. Sometime podcast is in English, sometime in Czech. There's no paywall, and we don't sell anything. We simply provide data and facts. You can find us on X (Twitter): @janruzijan & @kweenolog.
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