SpaceX Is Going Public: Here's Everything You Need to Know

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down SpaceX’s S-1, unpacking what the filing reveals about Starlink, xAI, X, common control accounting, revenue, losses, CapEx, and Elon Musk’s Mars-linked compensation structure.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run—LINKS: CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 SpaceX S1 breakdown0:50 Elon's Mars colony comp plan2:03 Common control accounting: SpaceX + xAI + X3:04 What SpaceX actually does3:43 How reusable rockets work4:24 Launch cost curve: foundation of everything5:49 Launch services: $8B, 85% of global launches6:44 Starlink: $11.4B, 63% EBITDA margins7:36 xAI and X: burning $1B/month8:22 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY11:18 Colossus and orbital AI thesis11:41 Revenue, segments and CapEx breakdown14:54 RPO: $28.4B backlog15:18 Starlink subscribers and ARPU decline16:01 Target valuation: $1.5–1.75 trillion16:47 Starlink deep dive18:05 International pricing strategy21:38 The consolidated entity problem22:28 Related party section: nine pages22:32 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph26:15 Valor Equity: $20B in equipment leases27:05 Tesla cross-ownership and Terrafab28:23 R&D: $8.6B, 46% of revenue30:33 Starship: key risk and growth linchpin31:41 Red flag 1: CEO comp tied to Mars colony32:22 Red flag 2: Musk concentration risk32:49 Red flag 3: Cursor option — $10B downside33:36 Red flag 4: X advertising is shrinking34:06 IPO structure and SPCX ticker34:50 30% retail allocation, no lockups35:44 S&P 500 inclusion forces buying within 15 days37:54 Valuation: 60–70x forward revenue38:43 Peer comparison39:44 What you're buying at $1.5T40:53 CFO comp: the only sane plan in the filing41:25 Bitcoin on the balance sheet41:57 Credits