Whatever Happened To Predictability? Roger Spitz Explains

Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.   In this episode, Justin interviews Roger Spitz on a variety of ERM and futurist topics, including his career path and the thought leadership he provides today. They discuss unpredictability, uncertainty, and why the future is not clearly seen. They discuss the importance of agility and how improv prepares for it. Roger shares his thoughts on how ERM practitioners can be ready for the unknown.   Listen for Roger's thoughts on antifragility, being anticipatory, and agility. Key Takeaways: [:01] About RIMS and RIMScast. [:16] About this episode of RIMScast. We will be joined by Roger Spitz, Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute, President of Techistential, and the opening keynote speaker for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026, which will be held November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. [:48] Before we get to our interview… [:50] Webinars: On Nov. 5th, Riskonnect returns to deliver the session "Signal Over Noise: Smarter Risk Analytics." [:59] Origami Risk will return on December 10th to present "Managing Insurance Programs at Scale: What Complex Portfolios Require." This session was rescheduled from October, and if you were registered for that one, you are automatically registered for the new date in December. [1:15] We will close out the year with two webinars from the RIMS Advocacy and External Affairs Committees. On November 10th, we will host a session about the "Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and Program: an update on Federal Developments." [1:31] On December 3rd, we've got "Third-Party Litigation Financing: What Nuclear and Other Verdicts Mean for the Industry and Your Bottom Line." Find all webinars at RIMS.org/webinars. [1:41] I've got a link on this episode's show notes to the virtual workshops for the RIMS-CRMP. [1:47] Special announcement: On December 3rd and 4th, 2026, from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., you can prepare for the RIMS-CRMP exam with the RIMS 2026 President, Manny Padilla, at St. John's University at 101 Astor Place in New York City. [2:04] The exam application fee is included if you register for this prep course. Visit RIMS.org/Certification and the link on this episode's show notes. [2:14] The Q3 Edition of RIMS Risk Management Magazine is now available at RMMagazine.com. Check it out! [2:21] RIMS on YouTube! RIMS is back on YouTube. Our handle is @RIMSOfficialChannel. We've got plenty of videos there, including RIMScast, RIMScast Canada video podcasts, and other informative and entertaining content from RIMS. Subscribe to the channel today! [2:39] On with the Show! The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held on November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. Learn more and register at RIMS.org/ERM2026. Our guest today will be kicking things off at the conference. [2:58] He is Roger Spitz, the Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute and the President of Techistential. He joins us today to provide a preview of his keynote, "Black Swans and Golden Geese: Risks and Returns in the Era of Unpredictability." I'm stoked, and I want to get right to it! [3:18] Interview: Roger Spitz, Welcome to RIMScast! [3:44] Roger says he's probably the only futurist with a background in M&A. He started as a chartered accountant (ACA) in the UK and moved into investment banking. He was Global Head of M&A for BNP Paribas, advising boards, CEOs, and investors on acquisitions and divestments. [4:19] Roger was based in London. In 2017, the CEO asked him to rebuild the M&A Tech practice in San Francisco. He promised himself when he came here that he would go down the rabbit hole of change. [4:34]  Roger did a lot of microcourses on complexity systems, foresight, even stand-up comedy, and all kinds of things, looking at change from different vantage points. He felt futures was an interesting umbrella for that. [4:54] Roger felt that the way even the most sophisticated, well-paid business leaders think about the world as a linear, predictable, stable, controllable set of assumptions was not only wrong, but that the cost of relying on those assumptions would increase. [5:12] Roger says, after a few years, he decided to leave investment banking and spend full-time thinking about strat