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RenMac: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements co
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The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 2 days ago37 min
RenMac Off-Script: There Is An Alternative
RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates could mean for markets and the economy. The team discusses a resilient consumer facing mounting pressure from higher food, energy and borrowing costs, the continued unwind in tech and momentum, and why 5% Treasury yields are creating a real alternative to equities. They also explore the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, the politics surrounding AI data centers, emerging-market opportunities, and what rising rates and shifting leadership could signal for the next phase of the market cycle.
- 1 weeks ago42 min
RenMac Off-Script: The Great Separation
RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and the rotation out of tech, opportunities in TIPS, escalating Middle East energy risks, and why the recent momentum crash may be entering a critical “separation” phase that reveals the market’s next leaders.
- 2 weeks ago49 min
RenMac Off-Script: Hormuz, Hyperscalers & the Market*
Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained surprisingly contained, and how the conflict is testing U.S. military capacity and strategic credibility. The team explores the intensifying competition with China over critical minerals, AI and compute, the growing political backlash against hyperscalers and data centers, and what winning the AI race actually means. They also break down the historic unwind in momentum, why elevated inflation and middling growth are flashing a more cautious market-cycle signal, and how resilient credit markets and a still-positive equity trend are keeping the broader bull case intact.
- 3 weeks ago51 min
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Swallows Whistle
RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the midterms and what that means for bonds, gold, and the AI trade. The team explores why rising yields are a rational response to global deficits and the largest infrastructure build-out since the 1850s, why the People's Bank of China — not the Treasury — is the real driver of gold, and why the hyperscaler capex boom looks more like an earnings bubble than a price bubble. They also cover Bessent's buyback operations, widening credit spreads, the momentum unwind, tariffs, and Jackson Hole.
- Aug 21, 202649 min
RenMac Off-Script: Breaking Glass
RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how bill-funding those buys lands them on the Fed's sheet. The team also discusses why a 53-year high in capex intentions is credit-financed capacity that looks like growth until the cost of capital reprices, Oracle and Nvidia CDS at new highs, PMIs as a bad indicator for asset allocation and why P/Es are siren songs in the context of shooting failed momentum in the back.
- Aug 14, 202645 min
RenMac Off-Script: Total Eclipse of the Hike
RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk of a September hike. The team also discusses slowing consumer spending after a weak retail sales print, a tape where the trend holds in the face of the momentum unwind and the Leopold rebound, the Credit Card Competition Act's path onto the Clarity Act, AOC's rise in the betting markets, and the week ahead in Fed minutes.
- Aug 6, 20261h 1m
RenMac Off-Script: Forecasts > Feelings*
Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% — on tax incentives, deregulation, and AI — and why a data-dependent Fed is "momentum trading" monetary policy rather than forecasting inflation a year out. The team breaks down AI capex draining tech free cash flow, the Warsh Fed's dissents and Waller's hawkish turn, a stronger yen and the mechanics of possible FX intervention. They also explore new S&P highs, Middle East uncertainty, and the week ahead in the CPI print.
- Jul 31, 202641 min
RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Case Scenario
Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.
About RenMac
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements co
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