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Rational Security: Daily Summaries Delivered
by The Lawfare Institute
A weekly discussion of national security and foreign policy matters hosted by Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson.
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- 4 days ago1h 26m
The “Riding the Blue Wave Special Election" Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Senior Editor Eric Columbus; and Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai to talk through the week’s big international news stories, including:“The Subpoena Is Coming From Inside the House.” Democrats scored a historic victory in yesterday’s midterm elections, securing control of both the House and Senate by a healthy (but not filibuster-proof) margin that is widely seen as a direct rebuke of the Trump administration. How will a Democratic agenda impact President Trump’s policy agenda over his last two years in office? Which topics are likely to be the clearest targets of oversight and other measures? And how effective are these measures likely to be in pressuring him to change his tack?“Lame Duck and Cover.” The most significant issue in this week’s elections was undoubtedly President Trump’s decision to initiate the Iran War, and the subsequent impact it has had on the global economy. Yet Trump and his advisors have not been shy about their intent to escalate the war with Iran once again after the election, and have arguably already done so through a series of secret strikes that only became public the day of the midterm elections. What limits does a Democratic congress put on Trump’s war-fighting capabilities? And how much further will Trump be able to pursue the war now that he will no longer have a compliant Congress?“2028 Days Later.” With the midterms over, the race for 2028 is about to begin in earnest. Does this most recent election give any insight into which national security issues are likely to be a major concern in the next presidential race? And what do the dynamics of the midterms tell us about how those issues will shape – and be shaped by – the primaries and general election to follow?In object lessons, Tyler recommends the new album, "No Bad Memories," by The Avalanches. Ari is blown away by the set design and acting in the stage play, "Stranger Things: The First Shadow." Scott is listening to the new revival of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, called "Still Counting." And Eric has discovered the classical music streaming service IDAGIO.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 1 weeks ago1h 10m
The “Not So Super Tuesday” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Senior Editors Michael Feinberg and Molly Roberts to talk through the week’s big international news stories, including:“Full Metal Ballot.” For more than 160 years, federal law has made it a crime to bring “troops or armed men” to any place where an election is being held. But with President Trump refusing to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act, National Guard troops still on the streets of Washington, and the Justice Department preparing to send roughly 1,000 election monitors to polling sites across the country, many are worried about what voters will encounter on Tuesday. Military leaders say they have no plans to send troops to the polls, and a federal judge just reined in armed Homeland Security agents who had been going door to door questioning suspected noncitizen voters. What does the law actually allow federal personnel to do on Election Day? And what happens if the administration decides to test those limits anyway?“Certifiable.” With Election Day less than a week away, the Justice Department has moved from warning about election fraud to actively trying to shape how votes get counted and certified. Last week, in Alaska, the Justice Department—acting on President Trump’s personal orders—sued to block certification of the U.S. Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing possible voter confusion caused by a second candidate on the ballot named Daniel J. Sullivan. In California, DOJ has sued to stop officials from counting more than 20,000 mail ballots from voters it claims are “likely noncitizens,” threatened election officials in all 58 counties with prosecution, and even tried to leapfrog the trial judge by running straight to the Ninth Circuit, which promptly sent it back. Attorney General Todd Blanche insists DOJ isn’t trying to overturn anything. So what are these lawsuits really for? And what do they tell us about what the administration may have planned for after Nov. 3?“Deepfake in the Heart of Texas.” Russia is back—assuming it ever left. Last week, researchers attributed a pair of AI-generated videos falsely accusing Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico of sexual abuse to Storm-1516, a Kremlin-linked influence operation that ran a similar play against Tim Walz in 2024. That same week, the top Democrats on the congressional intelligence committees, Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, said a classified briefing showed Russia targeting Democrats and other supporters of Ukraine, with China and Iran running more targeted efforts of their own. All this comes after the Trump administration dismantled much of the federal apparatus for countering foreign election influence. How worried should we be about foreign meddling in the final days of the midterms? And what happens if the administration itself starts invoking foreign interference to cast doubt on the results?In object lessons, Molly is keeping cozy with a surprisingly delicious parmesan cabbage soup. Scott is catching up on the historical horror book, "Between Two Fires." And for any The Velvet Underground fans, Michael recommends "Rock*: A Mainstream Alternative History of Alternative Mainstream Music." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 2 weeks ago1h 30m
The "Snifting Up to Boston" Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes; Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai; and Contributing Editor and Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace Joel Braunold, to talk through the week’s big international news stories, including:“Pick Me, Bibi, One More Time.” Israelis head to the polls next Tuesday, October 27, in an election widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—held just weeks after the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, which Netanyahu has steadfastly refused to submit to an independent state commission of inquiry. Polls show his Likud trailing former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party, with neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition anywhere near the 61 seats needed to govern. Netanyahu has scrambled for a late boost, including by securing a “Complete and Total Endorsement” from President Trump, who suggested that if Israelis choose anyone else, he may not be inclined to “finish the job” against Iran. Is this finally the end of the Netanyahu era? And what would a new government—or a hung Knesset—mean for Israel’s wars and its relationship with Washington?“Crude Awakening.” U.S.-Ukraine relations have hit perhaps their lowest point of the second Trump administration. In the aftermath of President Trump’s deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin easing U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel exports, Trump told Ukraine it had “better damn well stop” striking Russian oil refineries and even called on Ukrainians to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv, meanwhile, says U.S. intelligence sharing was briefly cut off and its Starlink access throttled—just as Russia launched some of its largest drone barrages of the war. Ukraine initially respected Trump’s call to pause attacks on Russia’s diesel refineries but, after Russia did not reciprocate, resumed long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Now Putin is reportedly floating a summit next month with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to decide Ukraine’s fate—without Zelensky at the table. Is Trump actively switching sides? And can Ukraine sustain its momentum on the battlefield if Washington keeps pulling the rug out from under it?“French Toast.” France is reeling after a weekend of some of the worst unrest it has seen in years. What began in mid-September as student protests over overcrowded classrooms and teacher shortages has snowballed into a nationwide movement against the rising cost of living, joined by unions, farmers, and veterans of the “Yellow Vest” movement. On Saturday, more than half a million people marched across the country—before the day degenerated into rioting, looting, and arson, with roughly 1,800 people ultimately getting arrested. President Emmanuel Macron has blamed far-left “insurrectionist elements,” while his would-be successors are already trading blame with an eye on next spring’s presidential election – one in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally is currently the frontrunner. What’s driving the unrest? And who stands to benefit politically as France heads toward 2027?In object lessons, Ben issues an enlightened apology to our neighbors to the north. Ari is sailing through her free time with Sleeping Gods. Scott is teaching his kids how to kick it old school in a new way. And Joel, somehow, in a way only Joel can, finds a patriotic message in this age-old battle for devotees and how you spend your weekends.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- 3 weeks ago1h 22m
The “Cooking With Gas!” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman and Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee, and Contributing Editor and partner at Steptoe LLP Michel Paradis, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Fuel Me Once, Shame On You.” On Friday, President Trump announced that he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring more than 3 million tons of previously sanctioned Russian diesel onto U.S. and global markets. The move came as Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries had forced Moscow to halt diesel exports—and, according to U.S. officials, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeatedly refused U.S. demands that those strikes stop on the grounds that Russia would not stop targeting Ukraine’s own energy infrastructure. Trump has suggested the move will reduce prices for U.S. consumers ahead of the midterms, but experts are doubtful. He’s also declared an energy ceasefire that neither side recognizes and that only Ukraine is pretending to respect. Could Trump’s diesel deal really pay off? Or is it another example of him getting rolled by Putin?“The Third Front is the Charm.” Yemen’s civil war is back with a vengeance—and spilling across the border. Since a U.N.-brokered ceasefire collapsed earlier this year, the Iran-aligned Houthis have seized much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and repeatedly targeted Saudi oil infrastructure, among other targets. This past week, Houthi missiles struck several Saudi airports, killing at least 20 people. President Trump has suggested that the United States may join the fight in support of Saudi Arabia, while Iran has offered to mediate. Is Tehran opening a new front in its war with the United States? And what options does Saudi Arabia (and the United States) have to respond? “Going Dutch.” Last Friday, just hours after former International Criminal Court judge Navi Pillay was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced new sanctions against the court itself. Unlike previous rounds, which targeted individual judges, prosecutors, and their supporters, the new sanctions target The Hague-based ICC as a whole, blocking its U.S. assets and barring Americans from providing it with funds, goods, or services. Rubio has framed the choice in stark terms: either the court ends its threats against the United States and Israel, or the United States ends the court. Several key U.S. allies have objected, and the EU is weighing whether to deploy its “blocking statute” in response. Can U.S. sanctions really throttle the ICC? And how far will Europe split from the United States to protect the court?In object lessons, Dan continues to engage in questionable forms of escapism with an endorsement of the second edition of An Infamous Traffic. Julia observes the 10th anniversary of Russian interference the 2016 elections with a recommendation of “The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World,” by Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin. Scott mourns the loss of a favorite RatSec Fan Club hangout—City State Brewing—and wonders where the new clubhouse will be. And Michel passes on the age-old tradition of doing your kids’ work for them with a heartfelt tribute to the Pinewood Derby.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Oct 8, 20261h 21m
The “Too Much Molly” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Editor in Chief and cohost emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Roberts, and Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Pocket Change.” Late on Friday, September 25, the White House sent Congress an $810 million “pocket rescission”—a request to cancel already-appropriated federal funding, timed so the money will expire at the end of the fiscal year on September 30, before the 45 days Congress has to review the rescission request. It’s the second time the Trump administration has used the maneuver after the Supreme Court let the pocket rescission of about $4 billion in foreign assistance funds go forward last year. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins and Democratic appropriators have denounced the move as illegal, the Government Accountability Office agrees, and seven states (among other plaintiffs) have already sued. And this time, some district courts may be gravitating toward a novel, if largely untested, solution: using equitable and statutory authority to suspend the disputed funds’ expiration date. Could this measure help bring an end to pocket rescissions? And how far is the Trump administration willing to go in seeking to assert control over federal funds?“Poll Position.” With less than a month to go before the midterms, the Trump administration’s campaign to reshape U.S. elections is getting mixed results. The Supreme Court decided on September 25 to allow the Department of Homeland Security to resume using its revamped SAVE citizenship database to help states screen their voter rolls for noncitizens. But federal courts have pushed back on other measures, from the administration’s proposed mail-in-ballot rule, to efforts to coerce states into providing their voter rolls, to the withholding of counterterrrorism grants from states and localities that don’t adopt the administration’s preferred election changes. What part of our elections seem safe 30 days out, and which are still under peril? And what could the consequences be?“Straining Credulity.” Last week, a 28-year-old laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Siberia died of severe pneumonia, reportedly after being exposed to the bacterium that causes pneumonic plague, prompting Russian authorities to quarantine a local hospital and place nearly 200 people under medical observation. Russian officials have since insisted she died of “pneumonia of unknown etiology” and told the World Health Organization on Tuesday that no plague has been found among her contacts. But shifting official accounts, disappearing local news reports, and Russia’s long history of biological weapons work—including the U.S. government’s assessment that Moscow still maintains an offensive program—have fueled concerns. What do we actually know about what happened in Irkutsk, and to what extent should we believe the official account being offered by the Russian government? And what does it tell us about the risks posed by Russia’s biological research enterprise?In object lessons, Molly L. is a notebook-carrying member of the pink soup club. Ben, in ingesting the Congressional Precedents into RAGtime, discovers what Senators may ingest on the floor. Scott expresses his concern over the state of the United States Code. And Molly E. once again makes the case for the pleasures of regionally produced NPR, with a story that manages to combine two of her favorite things: excellent local journalism and the legislative process.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Oct 1, 20261h 3m
The “Techs Appeal” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Senior Editors Anna Bower and Michael Feinberg to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Third Country’s the Charm.” On Tuesday, the Supreme Court cleared the way—for the third time—for the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to “third countries” with which they have no connection, staying a lower court ruling that found the policy unlawful and agreeing to hear the case on the merits in December. The decision comes days after the administration quietly flew a group of Somali men—some with no criminal records, who had been held at Guantánamo Bay for a month after being told their plane was only stopping in Cuba to refuel—to Mogadishu, on a flight that departed hours after an appeals court made clear the third-country removal policy was blocked. It also comes as lower courts are increasingly finding the administration in contempt for violating their orders in deportation cases, and as the full D.C. Circuit weighs whether Judge James Boasberg can continue his contempt inquiry into last year’s Alien Enemies Act flights. What does this pattern tell us about the administration’s relationship with the courts? And how far it is willing to push its immigration agenda?“Here Comes the Bribe.” Last week, ProPublica revealed that, by late 2024, FBI anti-corruption agents believed they had enough evidence to seek a sweeping bribery investigation stemming from a defense contractor’s illegal donations to Maine Senator Susan Collins and other members of Congress—only for the probe to die when the Trump administration gutted the FBI and Justice Department units that handle public corruption cases. Collins denies any wrongdoing and has called the contractor a liar, but the story has become a central issue in her tight reelection race. It’s also just the latest in a string of stories raising questions about public integrity in and around the Trump administration, from the Putin-linked Russian oligarch that secretly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding, to the Kash Patel- and Todd Blanche-studded wedding of former U.S. Attorney Alina Habba to a Turkish businessman with close ties to the Erdoğan government—with mixed martial arts manager Abdelaziz Ali, a former FBI source and suspected double agent, in attendance. What does the Collins story tell us about what happens when no one is minding the store on public corruption? And how worried should we be about who is buying access to the president’s inner circle?“Manufactured Content.” President Trump escalated his war on the press this month, banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House and having the Secret Service seize their reporters’ press passes over what he described as years of unfair coverage. A federal judge has since temporarily ordered their access restored, finding the ban likely violated their due process rights. But the White House isn’t just restricting who gets to tell its story—it’s also paying to tell its own, launching a series of taxpayer-funded TV ads that feature President Trump and closely track his campaign messaging, including one nearly identical to a 2024 campaign spot, just weeks before the midterms. The White House insists these are merely public service announcements. Is the administration breaking longstanding norms in an effort to take control of the narrative? And are there any legal limits that might stop it?In object lessons, Mike has two cautionary tales about tech appeal: “When We Cease to Understand the World” and “The Maniac.” Tyler is embracing sexy technical gear with a recommendation of Field Mag. Scott is returning to an old favorite that just understands him: “Fantasy Football Punishments for Your Work League that Violate the Geneva Convention.” And Anna is delighted by a more cutthroat side of cutting-edge: the National Havoc Robot League. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Sep 24, 20261h 21m
“The Right Kind of American for Rational Security” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:"The Xi-Quel." This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for a three-day state visit—his first to the U.S. capital in more than a decade, and the second Trump-Xi summit of 2026 after the president’s own trip to Beijing in May. The pageantry will be considerable: Trump plans to greet Xi personally at Joint Base Andrews, followed by a Rose Garden honor guard, a bilateral meeting, and a state dinner. But the substance is heavier than the ceremony. With a 90-day tariff truce set to expire on November 10, China’s rare-earth export controls hanging over global supply chains, a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, and questions about Beijing’s economic lifeline to Iran, the two leaders face a crowded and contentious agenda. What can we actually expect from this summit? Is anyone anticipating a breakthrough—or just a managed continuation of what one analyst called a “managed stalemate”?"A Fjord in the Road." On Friday, President Trump announced that the United States, Denmark, and Greenland had reached an agreement giving Washington what he described as “permanent control over security, and all other needs” in Greenland—capping a year of tension in which Trump had repeatedly threatened to take the Arctic island by economic or even military force. Denmark and Greenland insist the deal respects Greenlandic sovereignty and territorial integrity even as it clears the way for a major expansion of the U.S. military footprint and bars adversaries like Russia and China from establishing bases or making “sensitive investments” there without U.S. approval. Does the deal really give Trump the “permanent control” he is touting? And how did a standoff that once looked like an existential crisis for a NATO ally end up here?"Contempt of Court." World leaders are gathering in New York this week for the annual high-level session of the UN General Assembly. In his speech before the body, President Trump reiterated a number of standard talking points, notably claiming to be a peacemaker even as he again threatened Iran with annihilation. But his administration may be planning something more dramatic: according to the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, the administration has drafted sanctions measures targeting the entire International Criminal Court—not just individual judges and prosecutors, as before—that could aim to cut the Hague-based tribunal off from the global financial system. The implications reach well beyond The Hague, raising hard questions about the weaponization of dollar dominance and the geoeconomic fallout for the banks, contractors, and allied governments that deal with the court. What is Washington trying to accomplish at Turtle Bay—and at what cost?In object lessons, Natalie, following in the footsteps of others before, has found a heartwarming use for AI, relatively speaking. Scott continues to nerd out over treaty law and the museums that love it. And Julia has a slightly less uplifting AI story—but one that could come with merch!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
- Sep 17, 20261h 26m
The “Worlds Colliding” Edition
This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Lawfare Senior Editors Kevin Frazier and Roger Parloff, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“P(doom) and Gloom.” Last week, a wonky corner of the tech world became national news when Jacob Coxon, a 27-year-old pretraining researcher, resigned from Anthropic and posted a viral thread accusing his employer and its rival OpenAI of racing toward self-improving superintelligence and “gambling with our lives.” His warning was quickly amplified by current Anthropic staff—and, days later, by CEO Dario Amodei himself, who published a lengthy essay urging the industry to slow down, drawing rare public agreement from Sam Altman and Elon Musk, a slide in AI stocks, and fresh calls for regulation in Washington. Is this the moment AI-safety fears finally broke into the mainstream? And should the rest of us be as worried as the people building these systems say they are?“Trains, Planes, and Provocations.” Tensions along NATO’s eastern flank are spiking over an increasing number of Russian provocations in and near NATO territory relating to the Ukraine conflict. Recent examples have included an explosives-laden drone at a German airport, another drone shot down in Lithuanian airspace, and repeated incursions into Poland and Romania related to border and port facilities adjacent to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pledged to bolster the alliance’s defenses and insisted the West won’t be “scared” off of supporting Kyiv, even as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the coming months could bring intensified Russian action and possible spillover onto NATO soil. Is this a deliberate campaign by Russia to test and divide the alliance? And how much escalation risk does it actually carry?“Seeking the Plane Truth.” On September 29, the full D.C. Circuit will hear en banc arguments in what may be one of the most consequential rule-of-law fights of Trump’s second term: whether Chief Judge James Boasberg may investigate who in the administration defied his March 2025 order to turn around planes carrying Venezuelan men to El Salvador’s CECOT prison under the Alien Enemies Act. While Boasberg found probable cause for criminal contempt, panels dominated by Trump appointees have twice blocked him from doing so—with the Justice Department, whose own senior officials are reportedly implicated in some of the relevant discussions, arguing that all a judge may do is refer the matter to the Department itself to decide whether to investigate and prosecute. What is really at stake when the branch accused of contempt gets to decide whether anyone is charged? And how is the full court likely to rule?In object lessons, Kevin is putting the “community” in community college with high praise for the AI Literacy initiative in Alabama. Roger seams to think that the Bayeux Tapestry at the British Museum in London is knot your average exhibit. Scott finds weekend mornings watching Hilda with his kids to be a magical, enchanted adventure. And Ari is decidedly not in the Middle of Nowhere with her love for the new Kacey Musgraves album. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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