The Burge Report: Boomers Can’t Save Us Forever: The Hard Truth About Church Demographics

In this episode, we break down Ryan Burge’s demographic analysis of American Protestant churches and the uncomfortable math behind membership decline. Using age-distribution data across major denominations, Burge argues many churches aren’t stable—they’re simply being “buoyed by the Baby Boomers.” With modal ages in the late 60s, shrinking numbers of young adults, and fewer children in the pipeline, many groups are approaching a demographic tipping point. Decline won’t be gradual; it will feel slow and then sudden. Unless leaders plan now, some denominations could lose 30–50% of their adult members over the next couple of decades. The message is clear: this isn’t a theological or programmatic problem. It’s an actuarial problem, and the clock is already ticking.