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Plausibly Deniable: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Lukas and Saila
A conversation about incentives, power, and the stories we tell ourselves to justify outcomes.Hosted by Lukas (https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ) and Saila (https://x.com/sailaunderscore)Sponsored by Polymarket, CitizenX and Network Press
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- 4 days ago1h 10m
The Problem with Knowing Things
Lukas and Saila talk about product reviews and Costco bulk buying, AI safety and political burnout, Middle East news and the Lindsay Clancy trial, how people evaluate medicine and scientific evidence, podcast analytics and consumer behavior, crypto and the Clarity Act, jury trials, cooking, sun exposure, fishing, and the very different cultures of YouTube and X.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why going outside is dangerous01:12 Product reviews, sponsors and bad products03:03 Reviewing the Tri Blue scalp cleanser05:53 Scalp tension and “one big problem”07:45 Costco, bulk buying and natural soap11:18 Water filtration and optimizing showers12:17 How upgrades ruin ordinary experiences14:09 Why online debates have become exhausting16:35 AOC, Rubio and “serious” politicians18:44 Political burnout and the Iran war20:01 Houthis, Saudi forces and Middle East absurdity21:51 The Lindsay Clancy juror controversy24:20 Starbucks, normies and “touch grass”25:41 What normal people think about AI safety27:20 Anthropic, IPO incentives and AI spending28:31 Regulatory capture and AI safety scares30:19 Why actionable topics beat grand debates31:33 Calls to action, subscriptions and selling knowledge32:00 Tai Lopez, books and knowledge LARPing33:08 Timeless episodes vs current-event content34:13 Crypto gains, watches and better uses of money36:31 Status anxiety and expensive watches37:35 Surgery reviews and fear of rare outcomes40:00 User error, contraception and bad statistics41:51 Mechanisms vs correlation in modern science43:30 Trusting doctors and personalized judgment45:13 Shorter episodes, retention and production value46:59 Consumers don’t know what they want47:57 Kickstarter and the reversal of customer risk49:57 Anonymity, the penguin and online identity50:49 Crypto markets and the Clarity Act52:18 Jury trials and demographic incentives53:30 Searching for better “normie” topics54:55 Chicken cooking and simple food57:32 Costco carrots and the anti-outdoors bit59:37 Sun exposure and avoiding peak UV01:00:30 Fishing as prehistoric gambling01:02:00 Fishing regulars and local expertise01:04:02 Fun, short-form video and calls to action01:05:21 YouTube comments vs X01:06:55 “Heaven banning” and platform culture01:08:02 Big Chicken, sponsors and post-credit bits
- 1 weeks ago1h 38m
Game Theory Optimal
Welcome back to the Plausibly Deniable Experience. Lukas and Saila enter Soycast mode to reconstruct cooking from first principles, prove that bachelor slop is game-theory optimal, and explain why sharing food with roommates produces resentment instead of consumer surplus. We investigate the hidden fat tax, nuclear-powered dishwasher cabinets, and whether the government should pay your grandmother to cook for you.Then: why Twitter got boring, quote-tweet parasitism, synthetic OpenAI equity, and corporate jobs that have quietly become pensions. Doug Leone’s homelessness story becomes a debate about whether a long layover counts as adversity, Lukas gets trapped in an American Airlines Groundhog Day, and Saila discovers that “you can just do things” doesn’t necessarily extend to getting a menu. Also: getting a job as a self-improvement protocol, open-source software with a personal grudge, and the Balaji debate that never happened.If you didn’t need the money, what job would you do? Tell us in the comments.Sponsored by:Zcash: https://z.cashPolymarket: https://polymarket.comCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressBonus episodes + extended cuts: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comPlausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgSubmit a question: https://plausiblydeniable.org/ask/Follow the show: https://x.com/PD_EXPLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore00:00 Get a Job Theory 00:37 Sponsors and Welcome to the Soycast04:45 The Hidden Fat Tax07:59 Cooking From First Principles14:13 One Bowl, Zero Chores: Bachelor Economics23:44 Why Sharing Food Ruins Roommates27:28 Put the Grandmothers to Work32:30 Downvotes, Groupthink and the Death of Comments36:00 Engagement Farming and Synthetic OpenAI Equity40:47 The Fed vs. the Trading Algorithms42:39 Why Twitter Got Boring51:09 Riding With Biden and the Gerontocracy57:00 Kale, Dieting and Supermarket Discipline1:00:00 Boredom and Get a Job Theory1:01:56 The People Who Never Leave the House1:03:58 Incels, Age Gaps and America A vs. America B1:08:17 Doug Leone and the Homelessness Origin Story1:14:20 Trapped at DFW: Complaining on Twitter Works1:18:12 Sponsor Wishlist and Open Source With a Grudge1:20:30 The Balaji Debate That Never Happened1:22:49 The Best Job When You Don’t Need Money1:26:53 Video Calls, Insurance Sales and Plumber Sponsorships1:31:05 Dream Guests and Podcasting as an Endurance Sport1:33:34 Open Mics and Birthday Scams1:35:57 “You Can Just Do Things” vs. the Restaurant Hostess
- 2 weeks ago2h 3m
AI News And The Manufactured Internet | Brian Chau
Brian Chau has figured out how to use AI for journalism without producing AI slop: make the models read mountains of documents, then make humans write the story.Brian is the founder of Effort News, a publication using long-context AI to comb through federal databases, financial records, legal filings, and other giant piles of public data for stories everyone else missed. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain the refugee-resettlement grant investigation that convinced him to launch Effort, why ordinary journalism is often built around stories sources want “placed,” and what changes when you can query an entire government dataset instead.They also get into why frontier models are becoming better at math and worse at prose; Claude’s sycophancy; the different sources models inherently trust; taxpayer-funded NGOs; the funding behind anti-data-center and anti-AI activism; SBF’s Anthropic investment; Nick Shirley’s fraud counters; the EU’s attack on the open internet; zoning, NIMBYs, giant trucks, and “full-force centrism”; writing separate websites for humans and AIs; why Brian’s p(doom) is negative; and whether Effort can become a new source of truth for the AI age.Guest:Effort News: https://effort.newsBrian Chau on X: https://x.com/brianchau57Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgBonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Brian Chau: https://x.com/brianchau5700:00 — “Unaligned NGOs” and the anti-AI money trail01:06 — Welcome and Brian Chau02:01 — From machine learning to Effort News02:47 — Why AI writing keeps getting worse08:21 — Sycophancy and models that instantly agree with you09:37 — Which sources different models trust13:54 — How Effort News finds stories15:34 — The refugee-resettlement grant investigation25:00 — Data-first journalism versus planted stories27:08 — A million AI agents versus government databases28:58 — Data centers, unions, and political extortion31:29 — Why Brian is optimistic about the next 20 years33:19 — Europe, censorship, and the open internet37:30 — A white pill wrapped in black pills42:22 — Taxpayer-funded media and manufactured consensus44:10 — What does it mean for discourse to be “fake”?44:57 — Who funds anti-data-center activism?50:13 — Nick Shirley, fraud counters, and due diligence57:49 — Full-force centrism58:28 — Zoning, NIMBYs, and the affordability crisis1:04:04 — “Things can just be better”1:06:43 — How regulation made trucks enormous1:09:03 — Rebuilding a shared political reality1:13:02 — Tucker, Candace, and the right-wing influencer problem1:15:13 — How Effort News is funded1:16:00 — Who gets to shape AI’s values?1:17:09 — Writing one website for humans and another for AIs1:20:16 — How much of culture is manufactured?1:22:50 — The anti-AI funding network1:24:47 — SBF’s attempted crypto regulatory monopoly1:27:06 — Why Brian’s p(doom) is negative1:29:01 — The UK, France, and nuclear instability1:31:01 — The accidental founding of Effort News1:32:25 — Subscribers, B2B data, and a future newswire1:35:24 — Building a new source of truth1:39:29 — The Plausibly Deniable exclusive1:42:48 — Publicists, the Vice mafia, and founder-led media1:47:13 — Effort’s team and the disgusting CTA1:48:13 — Pre-made Twitter threads and “we read AI text”1:49:36 — Why real scoops sit next to total slop1:54:24 — Substack, data visualization, and $80,000 subscriptions2:02:23 — Final plugs and farewell
- 3 weeks ago1h 33m
The Reindustrialization Of America | Jakob Diepenbrock
Jakob Diepenbrock is running a hard-tech fund from El Segundo, backing young engineers building defense, manufacturing, robotics, energy, and other critical industries. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain how he skipped the credential ladder, built Discipulus Ventures, raised a fund by treating the process like a startup launch, and why Anduril’s breakout made defense tech the allocation everyone suddenly wanted.They also discuss cost-plus military contracts, drones versus soldiers, DJI’s domination of creator hardware, automated American textile factories, why humanoid robots are TikTok bait, insectoid factory machines, American-made peptides, ethanol and farm lobbies, machine financing at 30%, the tacit knowledge trapped in aging machinists, lowballing retiring boomers for obscure industrial monopolies, founder bench-press requirements, a Vegas magician who broke reality, CIA remote viewing, UFOs as Space Force marketing, medical isotope enrichment, Russian shell companies, and Germany’s reverse house-flipping bureaucracy.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.press_________________________________Watch, listen, and join the discussion:Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperienceSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2ThApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comX: https://x.com/PD_EXPJakob Diepenbrock: https://x.com/jakobdiepenDiscipulus Ventures: https://www.discipulusventures.comDiscipulus Cohort: https://www.discipulusventures.com/cohortLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreContact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.comTimestamps:00:00 Intro and Sponsors01:25 The Substack Payment Processor Is Finally Fixed05:00 Turning the Podcast Into a Call to Action07:08 Meet Jakob / Long-Distance Running Is Adult Self-Harm09:19 El Segundo, Chamath, and the Defense-Tech Wave11:17 Why Hard Tech Belongs in El Segundo14:40 Starting a Fund Without Credentials17:29 Venture Capital Is Crappy Beta19:23 Raising a Fund Like a Startup22:46 The 22-Year-Old Fund Manager Problem24:36 Why Defense Tech Suddenly Became Cool27:27 Elon, DOGE, and the $20 Million Missile29:05 How Cost-Plus Contracting Broke Defense30:00 The Defense Industry Is Smaller Than You Think32:19 Political Risk for Government Contractors35:17 Robotics Is the Next Bubble36:29 Reindustrialization and the American-Made Premium40:00 DJI, Drones, and the Captured Creator Economy42:03 “Reindustrialized” Sweaters Made in China43:47 Automated American Textiles47:59 Humanoid Robots Are Boomer Bait50:51 Insect Robots, Chemicals, and Ethanol54:58 RFK’s Fitness Camps and American-Made Peptides57:11 Bioreactors and Cheaper Drug Manufacturing58:23 Lowballing Boomers for Strategic Companies1:03:51 America Runs on Three Old Guys and a Notebook1:08:37 Grants, Tariffs, and Supply-Chain Sovereignty1:12:38 Wire Harnesses and 30% Machine Financing1:17:08 El Segundo Culture and the Founder Bench Test1:21:48 The Vegas Magician Who Broke Reality1:24:49 CIA Remote Viewing, UFOs, and Space Force1:28:33 Medical Isotopes and Russian Shell Companies1:31:05 Germany’s Reverse House-Flipping Program1:33:20 Mandatory Call to Action
- Aug 20, 20262h 2m
The Bliss of Confirmation Bias — w/ Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon returns to Plausibly Deniable to discuss the bliss of confirmation bias: how to engineer a viral take, why the edit may be the native medium of the 21st century, and why Angry Birds might be the most fascist movie ever made. Lukas, Saila and Covfefe review films they have not seen, explain why ironic criticism only makes its targets cooler, and consider whether Confirmation Bias is actually a better name for the podcast.The conversation also covers Ryan Gosling, Barbenheimer, James Bond, public-domain superheroes and AI remakes, Joe Biden and the death of the presidency, girl-avatar growth hacks, GPUs and matrix multiplication, phonics and grade inflation, business-school arbitrage, solo-podcast psychosis, radicalized wives, Twitter jannies, boomer game, hair-loss hopium, live-editing reality, friendship simulators, freedom of association, and the “blood diamonds attack” on crypto.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressWatch, listen, and join the discussion:Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperienceSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2ThApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comX: https://x.com/PD_EXPLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreCovfefe Anon: https://x.com/CovfefeAnonContact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.comTimestamps:00:00 How to Engineer a Viral Take01:02 Intro and Sponsors01:48 Reviewing The Odyssey Without Watching It05:15 Spoilers, Millennial Slop, and the Last Shared Culture10:40 Meta-Level Lying, LARPing, and Intrigue-Maxing17:24 Ryan Gosling’s Drive and the Single-Mom Concession20:28 Barbenheimer and the Fascism of Angry Birds24:03 Ryan Gosling vs. Angry Birds and the Communist Sequel30:00 James Bond Rides Bitch32:55 Public-Domain Superheroes and AI Remakes34:11 Activated Charcoal and the Final Original Podcast Episode37:12 Patrick Bateman, Starship Troopers, and Failed Irony39:44 GEOBODEN and Joe Biden’s Final Act42:58 The Presidency Is a Puppet Show46:49 The Edit Is the Native Medium of the 21st Century50:02 One Reader and Ninety-Nine Edit Watchers52:09 How to Manufacture a Viral Take54:46 The Girl-Avatar Growth Hack58:39 GPUs Accidentally Built Superintelligence1:02:14 Schooling, Phonics, and the End of Reading1:07:11 Harvard Sells Credentials, Not Education1:12:03 Business School, Bar Prep, and Clicker Arbitrage1:15:36 Solo Podcasting Causes Mental Illness1:17:34 Candace Owens and the Radicalized Wife1:22:20 Men Lead, Women Follow, and Soy Turns You Into a Deer1:24:09 Should We Rebrand as Confirmation Bias?1:26:30 Emotional Programming and Mental Illness as a Defense1:29:18 The Brain-Damage Loophole1:33:27 Mom Gets Banned and Twitter Jannies Get Rich1:38:22 Boomer Opportunity Stories and “May I Meet You?”1:42:46 Hot-Girl Signaling, Hair-Loss Hopium, and Recycled Tweets1:46:15 Broken Twitter Search, Outsourced Editing, and Dog Clickers1:49:48 Live-Editing Reality and the Ex Who Shrunk Seven Inches1:52:33 The Bliss of Confirmation Bias1:55:08 Friendship Simulators and the Blood-Diamonds Attack1:58:54 Freedom of Association and Memetic Stink2:02:20 Outro: Should We Rebrand?
- Aug 13, 20261h 33m
Coin-Flipping and the Linguistic Destruction of America
America has become a coin-flipping economy—and the language we use now punishes anyone foolish enough to take things seriously.Lukas and Saila discuss AI psychosis and a 76,000-contact CRM, the fragmented B2B SaaS economy, travel-authorization scams, tax software, W-2 employment, lawsuits, bankruptcy, fake sponsorships, macro investors with monkey pictures, crypto traders posting inspirational corn after blowing up, and Costco gold arbitrage.Then they turn to the linguistic destruction of America: how “try-hard,” “glazing,” the IDGAF war, and “Woke One” made effort, admiration, accountability, and sincerity embarrassing.Also discussed: DeepSeek’s immigrant work ethic, aggressive safety razors, safe-horny culture, podcasters as male sex workers, the office LARP keeping the American economy alive, and why titles and thumbnails matter more than the podcast itself.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressWatch, listen, and join the discussion:Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperienceSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2ThApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comX: https://x.com/PD_EXPLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreContact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.comTimestamps:00:00 “Try-Hard” Caused Societal Damage01:06 Intro and Sponsors01:17 Ransoming Product Recommendations02:14 The Beach-House Food Disaster04:32 AI Psychosis and the 76,000-Contact CRM07:29 The B2B SaaS Lego Scam09:11 Travel Authorization Scams and Private FCC Stings16:31 Tax Software, Professional Cartels, and the W-221:02 There Are No Winners in Court25:54 JD Vance, Europe, and Girlboss Diplomacy29:35 Fake Sponsorships and the Prometheus Statue33:13 Corporate Norwood Haircuts and Hormone Twitter37:31 The Crypto Trader Starts Posting Corn40:10 Gold, T-Bills, and Macro Monkey Pictures46:17 The Coin-Flipping Economy50:00 The Collective Psychic Force Field and the Big Kahuna52:22 Outflanking Every Doomer by Going Further Back53:51 Costco Gold Arbitrage56:29 Shamelessness Is the Last Remaining Edge57:49 Podcasters Are Male Sex Workers1:00:54 Crypto Nostalgia and DeepSeek’s Work Ethic1:03:00 The Aggressive Razor Ambush1:06:19 Smoothness, Bottoming, and Safe Horny1:09:44 “Woke One” and the Great Fugue State1:15:16 The IDGAF War1:16:20 How “Try-Hard” Damaged Civilization1:18:40 The Office Worker Who Pretends to Be Busy1:21:54 Your Breeding Fetish Came Free1:22:43 “Glazing” and Linguistic Destruction1:25:18 Titles, Thumbnails, and the Podcast Meta1:29:47 The New Dating Gift Economy1:31:48 Covfefe Anon Becomes a Permanent Houseguest1:32:43 Childhood Obliviousness
- Aug 6, 20261h 49m
Cooking With Arsenic: Why Cops Can't Shoot Pet Cats
Lukas and Saila talk about an accidental arsenic-poisoning bonfire, frustrating hospital visits, bizarre injuries, the Hunter Biden–Nick Fuentes interview, Gavin Newsom, European manufacturing, aging, astrology and viral internet tools, gender and dating dynamics, rural life, bulk food, FBI encounters, online anonymity, food quality, RFK Jr., AI culture, Silicon Valley politics, cats, dogs, strange neighbors, self-deception and AI-assisted coding.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________
- Jul 28, 20262h 19m
Private Money And The Norwood Supremacy: w/ Mert
Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Helius, joins Lukas and Saila to explain why privacy is crypto’s unfinished business, why he sees Zcash as encrypted—or “better”—Bitcoin, and what the Ironwood upgrade means for the Orchard pool, supply integrity, formal verification and quantum recoverability.They compare Zcash and Monero, unpack fungibility and tainted coins, discuss private finance on Solana and Helius’s work with Light Protocol, and examine why public blockchains risk becoming a global financial panopticon. The conversation then moves into AI, DeFi security, startup hiring, company names, Slavic relationship theory, emergency flowers and the collapse of straightforward Western dating.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressPlausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreMert: https://x.com/mert
About Plausibly Deniable
A conversation about incentives, power, and the stories we tell ourselves to justify outcomes.Hosted by Lukas (https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ) and Saila (https://x.com/sailaunderscore)Sponsored by Polymarket, CitizenX and Network Press
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