PCP Lens Podcast

Podcast - VBC Financial Simulation Model

February 12, 2026·48 min
Episode Description from the Publisher

DescriptionI created a financial simulation model to mimic value-based care contracts. This screencast explains how the model is structured, what the different variables mean, and shows some of the capabilities. It also demonstrates how a value-based care contract works in real life and often why it paradoxically increases the total cost of care.Chapter Markers* 00:00 - Intro* 02:20 - Step 1: Financial Model Setup* 09:01 - Step 2: Opportunity (Pot of Gold)* 10:46 - Step 3: Cost of Running an ACO* 16:09 - Step 4: Choosing a Funding Model* 19:28 - Step 5: Year 1 Outcomes* 24:18 - Step 6: Multi-Year Projection* 33:13 - Step 7: Monte Carlo Simulation* 44:05 - My Thoughts Based on Model FindingsLink to Written ArticleLink to YouTube Video VersionSubscribe to my YouTube ChannelPlease see the Disclaimer on the PCPLens "About" Page. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.pcplens.com

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