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by The Stimson Center
Hosts Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, and Zack Cooper debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to strategy, international relations, and the use of force.
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- 5 days ago1h 2m
Second to None? Evaluating a Second Island Chain Strategy
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the merits of Jennifer Kavanagh's proposed Second Island Chain strategy for Asia. They discuss U.S. objectives in the region and whether commitments to allies and partners are important to those aims. Chris also highlights the Trump administration's illegal questioning of civilian employees' past votes, Melanie warns about continued defense budget uncertainty, and Zack laments the administration's wayward embrace of Russia. Show Links: Jennifer Kavanagh, "A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia," Defense Priorities, September 10, 2026. Stephen Wertheim, X post, September 11, 2026. Antoni Slodkowski, Gram Slattery, and Andrius Sytas, "Pentagon tells Europeans to cool their rhetoric on Russia, sources say," Reuters, October 31, 2026. The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests • Stimson Center 2026 Outrider Nuclear Media Summit Face Off: Nuclear Anarchy? Kathianne Boniello, "State Department Allegedly Quizzed Those Up for Promotion If They Voted for Trump," Mediaite (via YahooNews), October 22, 2026. Noah Robertson, Inside the Breakdown of Trump's $1.5 Trillion Pentagon Plan, Washington Post, October 29, 2026.
- 2 weeks ago56 min
Debating the Meaning of Military Victory
On this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the question of military victory. Is there such a thing? Is military victory achievable for either Russia or Ukraine? And if so, at what cost? And will we ever see a war that ends in unconditional surrender? Grievances for President Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine by siding with China and Russia; the Saudi's dissembling on the threats to the Kingdom; and the latest stories of corruption within the Trump administration. Attas to the Ukrainians who rescued a wounded soldier by drone, to Anthony Scaramucci for lasting twice as long in his job as Katie Zacharia, and to Stimson's Evan Cooper – who is getting married! Congrats to Evan and Grace. Show Links: Stephen Biddle, Sam Winter-Levy, and Yuri Zhukov, "The Myth of Military Victory: The Dangerous Idea Driving Today's Wars of Choice," Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2026. Ahmed Al Omran, Nicolas Parasie, and Andrew England "Saudi Arabia to postpone 'Davos in the desert' after Houthi attacks," Financial Times, October 19, 2026. The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests, Stimson Center, November 5, 2026. Henry Stimson Diary August 9-10, 1945, National Security Archive. Drone rescuing Ukrainian soldier, X post, October 19, 2026. Dana Mattioli, Josh Dawsey, Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, and Vera Bergengruen, Inside Kimberly Guilfoyle's Last Days as Ambassador to Greece, Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2026.
- Oct 8, 20261h 1m
Will AI Tank Think Tanks?
As the artificial intelligence revolution advances and the Trump administration questions the value of outside experts, think tanks are facing a worsening supply-demand imbalance. Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent Anthropic report outlining different economic scenarios and apply its lessons to better understand how AI will transform think tanks and the broader foreign policy community in Washington. Chris welcomes members of Congress questioning funding for the Iran War, Melanie criticizes the administration for massively subsidizing a steel mill in Iowa, and Zack laments civilian leaders for involving the military in political messaging. Show Links: "Scenarios for Our Economic Future," Anthropic, September 2026. Helene Cooper and John Ismay, "Hegseth Lays Out His Military Vision," New York Times, September 30, 2026. Nela Richardson and Tim Decker, "The rise – and rise – of knowledge work," ADP Research, April 21, 2026 Education Pays, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gene Healy, "Want to Stop the Iran War? Don't Pay the Bill," Reason, October 2, 2026. Mike Yeo, "After yearslong delay, Taiwan receives first pair of new F-16s," Breaking Defense, October 2, 2026. Hunter Slingbaum and Kelly Grieco, "Runway Trap: How Chinese Missiles and Rockets Could Neutralize Taiwan's Air Force," Stimson Center, March 5, 2026.
- Sep 24, 202659 min
Unpacking the IG Report on the Iran War
With Zack out collecting frequent flyer miles, Tom Karako joins Chris and Melanie to discuss the Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury. When the war began in February, were the administration's stated objectives aligned with the resources needed to fight it? Are they now? What does America's use of so many high-end weapons tell us about our strategy? And what can we learn about the activities of the State and Treasury Departments during the war? Chris has a grievance for corruption in defense contracting, Tom remembers the late Sen. Jon Kyl, and Melanie wishes Capitals hockey player Alexander Ovechkin would stop campaigning for Vladimir Putin. Show Links: Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury, DOD Office of Inspector General, September 14, 2026. Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations in Iran, Congressional Budget Office, September 15, 2026. Noah Robertson, Tara Copp, Warren P. Strobel, and Alex Horton, More US Troops Have Died Amid Iran War Than Pentagon Has Disclosed Publicly, Washington Post, September 18, 2026. Ellen Milligan, Michael Neinaber, and Andrea Palasciano, US Warns Allies of Missile Delivery Delays Due to Shortage, Bloomberg, September 18, 2026. Eric Schmitt, Cost of Iran War Estimated at $43.6 Billion, New York Times, September 18, 2026. Robert Klemko, X post, September 17, 2026. James Paterson, Speech to the Submarine Institute of Australia, September 22, 2026. Tom Corben, Jennifer Parker, Satoru Mori, and Jeffrey Hornung, Australia, Japan, and the United States: Implementing a Trilateral Denial Strategy along the First Island Chain, United States Studies Centre, September 15, 2026. Jack Goldsmith, Glenn Fine, Jen Patja, What Does the Inspector General Do?, Lawfare podcast, December 10, 2024. William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden and Kirsten Berg, "The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way," ProPublica, September 22, 2026. Richard Gowan, "Shrink the UN: The Next Secretary-General Must Get Back to Basics," Foreign Affairs, September 21, 2026. U.S. Foreign Policy and the Separation of Powers: A Conference on Law, Power, and Democratic Accountability in a Changing International Order, Tufts University, September 24–25, 2026. "The Second Trump-Xi Summit: Takeaways from the US, China, and Russia," Online Event, Stimson Center, September 28, 2026. <a href= "https://flyweb51.github.io/wus-debate-series/"
- Sep 10, 202654 min
Lessons Learned (and Unlearned) from the GWOT
In this show, the Net Assessment crew ponders the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Twenty-five years after 9/11 and five years after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. what lessons have we learned about warfare? Does our experience in Afghanistan, and now in Iran, demonstrate that the American military has an outsized fixation on lethality? To better prepare for future conflicts, how should strategists think about how adversary human networks behave? Attas for former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, and grievances for Argentina's Javier Milei threatening to retake the Falklands. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Jonathan Schroden, What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough, War on the Rocks, August 17, 2026. Gregg Jaffe, Why the United States Can't Quit Its Wars, New York Times, August 30, 2026. Evan Cooper, The Shadow of 9/11 on Future US Foreign Policy, Stimson Center, September 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Michael Cohen, The Perils of Lethality, Stimson Center, June 24, 2025. Greg Myre, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth, NPR, September 1, 2026. Power Politics: Thucydides to Trump. The Exercise of Power Internationally through the Ages, The Hellenic Centre, September 22, 2026. Javier Milei's Outburst over the Falklands is a Mark of Weakness, The Economist, September 4, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef, Missy Ryan, and Michael Scherer, Dan Driscoll's Parting Shot, The Atlantic, September 1, 2026. Jason Dempsey, Coming to Terms with America's Undeniable Failure in Afghanistan, War on the Rocks, February 11, 2019. U.S. Department of State, "Promoting Pacific Prosperity: U.S. Engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum", September 1, 2026.
- Aug 27, 202654 min
Science: A New Golden Age?
The team sits down to talk about the new OSTP report, Science: A New Golden Age. What role should the government have in the scientific enterprise? What should national scientific goals be? It is time to integrate new funding models into research and development, or does that unacceptably increase the risk for politicization of science? Does the report's emphasis on breakthroughs that benefit the public more quickly ignore the importance of foundational research? Coming up on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Chris gives an atta to Joe Biden for making the hard decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan 5 years ago. Zack has a shoutout for Moderna and Merck for continued work on mRNA cancer vaccines, and Melanie congratulates British Prime Minister Andy Burnham for going to Kyiv and giving Ukraine classified data so it can produce Scalp long-range missiles. Show Links: Gil Barndollar, "Five Years Later, Biden Was Proven Right in Withdrawing From Afghanistan," American Prospect, August 17, 2026. Matthew Harper, Jason Mast, and Angus Chen, "Inside Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine triumph," STAT News, August 24, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, "The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Turn Against South Korea," The Dispatch, August 21, 2026. Michael Kratsios, Science: A New Golden Age, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 2026. Includes Russell T. Vought/Michael Kratsios Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies, July 21, 2026. Vannevar Bush, Science: The Endless Frontier, GPO, 1945. Bill Ackman, X post, August 19, 2026. Andrea Palasciano, US Presses Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts, Bloomberg, August 14, 2026. George Parker and Polina Ivanova, Andy Burnham Condemns Russia's 'Outrageous Threats' to UK During Kyiv Visit, Financial Times, August 24, 2026.
- Aug 13, 202653 min
The Beginning of the End in the Middle East?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Michael Fuchs's recent article arguing for a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. They also discuss the impact of the Iran War and shifting American attitudes towards Israel as well as the Saudi-U.S. nuclear deal and the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani collective defense agreement. Chris commends the Congressional Budget Office's battleship assessment, and Melanie gives credit to CSIS's team for its work on munitions, while Zack laments the Congress giving the executive branch more leeway on tariffs. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Michael Fuchs, "America Must Let Go of the Middle East," Foreign Affairs, August 8, 2026. Matthew Kroenig and Henry Sokolski, "The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster," Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2026. Daniel Poneman, "Critics of the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Have It Exactly Wrong," New York Times, August 6, 2026. "Advancing American Safety, Strength, and Prosperity in Southeast Asia," U.S. Mission to ASEAN, July 23, 2026. Neil Irwin, "Trump may get a big, new tariff authority," Axios, August 6, 2026. "The Navy's New Battleship Program: Costs and Implications for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base, Congressional Budget Office", August 5, 2026. Philip E. Auerswald, "The Irrelevance of the Middle East", The American Interest, May 2007 Justin Logan, "Why the Middle East Still Doesn't Matter", Politico Magazine, October 9, 2014. "The U.S.-Saudi Agreement for Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions", Arms Control Association, August 7, 2026. Christopher Preble and Alessandro Perri, "Assumption Testing: The Iran War Is a Case of Alliance Entanglement", Stimson Center, August 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "In a Nuclear World, Arms Control Is the Only True Deterrent", Inkstick, August 10. 2026. Mark Cancian and Chris Park, Six Reasons Why the US is Low on Munitions, CSIS, July 31, 2026. CSIS Missile Defense Project Alexandra Sharp, The Middle East Tries Its Hand at a NATO-Style Pact, Foreign Policy, August 7, 2026. Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, Trump's Saudi Nuclear Deal is Diplomatic Malpractice, Foreign Policy, July 27, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, <a href= "https://thedispatch.com/ar
- Jul 30, 202654 min
A Strategy of Denial?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss public attitudes toward the United States and China, and the Trump administration's response -- which mostly seems to deny that they matter. Why does much of the world view the United States less favorably, and China more favorably, than it did just a few years ago? Is this just a temporary decline that can be overcome with a new administration or nicer advisors? Does it even matter to American interests if we aren't loved? Grievances to the Pentagon for its secrecy and dissembling around casualties in the Iran War, and for thinking that its problems can be solved with more testosterone, and to the Coast Guard for its Polar Security Cutter program which is grossly overbudget and badly delayed. Attas to members of Congress for calling out the Pentagon's secrecy and dissembling around the Iran War, to those who pushed back on the Trump administration's plan to investigate the New York Times and Google for a series of leaks surrounding the new Air Force One, and for those uncovering and publishing the COVID files. Show Links: Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner, "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively Than the U.S.," Pew Research Center, July 15, 2026. "America's Report Card in Southeast Asia," Net Assessment, War on the Rocks, April 11, 2024. Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby, @USWPColby, X, July 14, 2026. Opinion, "Iran, China, Canada? A Defense of Trump's Grand Strategy," Interesting Times, New York Times, July 23, 2026. Biyon Sony Joseph, "Washington misreads middle power cooperation," Lowy Institute, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, and John Ismay, "Number of U.S. Troop Deaths Suddenly Appears Lower on Pentagon Website," New York Times, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, "Pentagon Changes How It Reports Casualties in Iran War," July 26, 2026. Tom Nichols, "The American People Need the Truth About the Iran War," The Atlantic, July 22, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire, "War by Any Other Name," The Atlantic, July 21, 2026 Jenny Leonard, Trump's Aides See China Cheating on Trade, But Shun Reprisal, Bloomberg, July 15, 2026. Alexander Burns, A New Report Offers a Stark Warning to Centrists, July 24, 2026. Sam Westfall and Dan Diamond, Fauci's Diary Reveals His Thoughts on a 'Rambling' Trump and His Own Fame, Washington Post, July 27, 2026. Malte Humpert, U.S. Polar Security Cutter Delayed to 2033 as Costs Top $6 Billion, GAO Warns, gCaptain, July 22, 2026. Ron Wyden, <a href= "https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-memb
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