The View Beyond: Reading between China’s headline indices

Global equity markets have performed strongly, led by the AI-driven rally across the US, Japan, and Korea, while China’s headline indices have lagged in comparison. Yet beneath the surface, performance has been more nuanced, with parts of the market showing stronger momentum than index-level data suggests.In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss why China’s markets have underperformed on the surface, whether traditional benchmarks are capturing the right parts of the economy, and how the AI and semiconductor cycle is shaping market performance. They also explore US-China relations, the outlook for the renminbi, dynamics in the property market, and the impact of oil prices and geopolitics on broader market conditions.(00:28) - China versus global markets and the underperformance question (01:54) - Are investors looking at the wrong indices (05:25) - AI cycle dynamics and China’s role in the semiconductor rally (08:18) - US-China relations and the geopolitical backdrop (13:25) - Renminbi outlook and China’s global positioning (16:30) - Property market rebound or false dawn (20:00) - Impact of oil prices and market implications