Crisis in the Middle East: A failure of imagination

Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Riani offers sharp insights into Tehran’s decision-making, divisions within the regime, the influence of external actors such as China and Russia, and the prospects for negotiations. The episode also examines the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and regional stability, weighing scenarios ranging from de‑escalation to renewed conflict. Gala tells the GEU that we are at greatest risk from what we fail to imagine. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.