Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond convexity versus the rate sensitivity of the AI and neocloud buildout, and why Max thinks estimates for names like Lam Research are far too low. A wide-ranging live reaction spanning the Fed's hardest decision in years and the market's response. Recorded September 16, 2026. Follow Joseph Wang on X https://x.com/josephwang Follow Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez