Japan Just Crushed Your Home Value (No, Really. They Did)

Sponsor Info: 1. Download Kalshi. Use code LOCKDOWN to get $25 when you trade $25. https://kalshi.com/2. See if a gold IRA is the right move for you - go to Http://LockdownGold.com or text “Liberty" to 35052 to get your free guide from Augusta Precious Metals.The Fed hiked 25 basis points. Your 30-year mortgage did not wait for permission. In this Liberty Lockdown breakdown, Clint Russell explains why long-term rates ripped toward 7.5% before Kevin Warsh’s FOMC even moved, how the 10-year Treasury — not the overnight funds rate — prices your house payment, and why the yen carry trade, Bank of Japan hiking, and a $40 trillion national debt are starving the bid for U.S. duration. He walks through the lock-in effect, frozen transaction volume, forced sellers on HELOCs and bridge debt, and the quiet path from originations drying up to a credit shock and banking contagion. If rates stick or grind toward 8%, affordability dies a second death, builders will not build, and price discovery finally hits the inventory sitting on the sidelines. This is the housing, rates, and dollar map — plus why he’s holding dry powder in T-bills instead of chasing record-high stocks and record-high homes.0:00 You won the 3.5% mortgage lottery 0:28 Why only 35% of people under 35 own a home 0:48 The Fed hike everybody already priced in 1:18 Inflation, Hormuz, and the first Warsh hike 2:05 The Fed does not set your mortgage rate 2:48 The 10-year just made a 2007 high 3:20 7.2% to 7.5% in a week 3:55 The yen is in your house payment 4:30 Yen carry trade: the world’s ATM is clogged 5:05 Japan stops subsidizing Washington’s deficit 5:40 Carry unwind → Treasuries sell off → mortgages rip 6:05 Energy shock, $40 trillion debt, global duration strike7:20 The bond market hiked first. The Fed is catching up 8:10 What 7.5% does to housing 8:40 The lock-in effect and tight inventory9:30 Affordability dies a second death 10:30 Buyer-seller gap and a frozen market 11:10 Why builders will not save you 11:40 Forced sellers, HELOCs, and a bear market 12:00 Price discovery 12:20 Banks, originations, and hidden MBS losses 13:50 HELOCs, investors, and office vacancy 14:30 Credit shock: the market seizes without a default wave15:20 Different movie, same genre 15:40 Contagion 16:00 The Fed sells gasoline 17:00 Inflation vs deflation vs the death of the dollar 18:20 Kalshi: Hormuz and Fed funds odds 20:00 Stagflation 20:40 Japan free money and 80% of foreign Treasury bids gone21:40 Knocked out of the dollar system 22:20 7.5% rates, recession risk, $40 trillion rollover 24:00 T-bills now pay more than being a landlord 25:20 Why he expects price cuts — and why he won’t date them 27:00 Central banks hate deflation 28:00 Dry powder: T-bills and CDs over record-high stocks28:50 $40 trillion and the long-term dollar blowoff30:00 Terrible time to buy houses or stocks31:00 Like, subscribe, Liberty LockdownNew Clip Channel, please subscribe! It's great: https://www.youtube.com/@UC_1E2DuUw3MJI-OiDVBNQjA Check out my show over on Fountain: https://www.fountain.fm/show/nUTYcMtl4yMuoKHljZWuBecome a supporting member of Liberty Lockdown here!: https://libertylockdown.locals.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/LibertyLockPodPickup AFAFO shirts over at https://erinnwaterdesign.com/collections/liberty-lockdownAll links: https://www.libertylockdownpodcast.com/Linktree: https://linktr.ee/libertylockdownAs always, leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple please and thanks!Liberty Lockdown presents a variety of opinions, sometimes opposing and controversial. They are not representative of the host of the podcast. Guests are encouraged to express their opinions in a safe and equitable environment.