Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

This week, Chris Caplice is joined by Dr. Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, for his fifth appearance on Freightvine.Chris and Jason break down why they believe the current truckload cycle began in December 2025, why it took a few months to confirm the shift, and why this expansion looks different from past freight cycles.In this conversation, they cover:Why this cycle appears to be supply-driven, not demand-drivenWhat spot and contract rate spreads can tell us about market shiftsHow capacity exits, Class 8 orders, and routing guide failures are shaping the marketWhether the AI boom can deliver real ROI or if the market is getting ahead of itselfWhat Michigan’s logistics and supply chain work can tell us about manufacturing, food production, and tradeIf you’re trying to understand where truckload pricing, capacity, and freight demand may be headed next, this is a timely conversation with one of the industry’s sharpest data-driven voices.For previous episodes and to subscribe to our newsletter, visit: dat.com/podcast/freightvineChapters00:00 Introduction 02:55 Identifying the Current Truckload Cycle04:16 Market Signals and Transition Points05:53 Comparing Cycles: 2017-2018 vs. 202509:00 Supply vs. Demand Driven Cycles12:15 Routing Guide Compliance and Market Dynamics16:15 Spot vs. Contract Rates: Current Trends20:38 Economic Factors Influencing Freight Rates22:47 AI and Memory Chip Demand: Future Implications26:10 The Future of AI and Profitability27:23 Electricity Infrastructure and AI's Role29:03 The Cost of AI and Model Maintenance31:28 AI's Impact on Labor and Employment34:04 AI in Academia and Content Creation38:04 The Economics of AI and Cost Structures45:33 Logistics and Supply Chain in Michigan51:09 Freightvine Market Update