Field Note #087 |The Certainty Trap

The forecast was absolute. The future was unbothered.------A forecast can be useful without being certain. In this Field Note, we examine the difference between a problem that can be solved and a paradox that must be managed. ~ Why do estimates become facts in meetings? ~ What happens when a single number hides the assumptions behind it? ~ And how can a better decision process protect money, time and operational flexibility without turning uncertainty into an excuse for inaction? Drawing on research into risk, ambiguity, organisational paradox and robust decision-making, this episode offers a simple set of questions to use before the next consequential commitment at work and beyond.------The strongest idea is not that we cannot predict the future. It is that we sometimes mistake having made a decision for having resolved the uncertainty behind it.------Stay Tuned…Regards, Top VoiceMaido; Konnichiwa minna! 👶🏻🧑🏻‍🦱👩🏻‍🦳Wie Gehts guys? Mir gehts gut!!! ✌️🤘🙌#business#leadership#fieldnotes#systemsthinking#organisationalpsychology#workplaceculture