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by EconWorks
Industrial organization insights on antitrust, digital platforms, and competition in ecosystem markets. blog.econworks.com
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Do you choose your supermarket first, or open a delivery app and then decide where to shop?That everyday decision provides a starting point for understanding DoorDash’s proposed acquisition of Instacart. In this EconWorks conversation, we follow two hypothetical neighbors whose grocery orders look identical but whose alternatives may differ.Could retailer delivery keep prices competitive? Would combining memberships benefit households? Could different discounts leave some shoppers more exposed to the loss of rivalry? And what evidence would show whether the merger’s promised savings outweigh its pricing incentives?We explore both the potential concerns and the efficiency case, explaining why a large market share does not answer every competitive question. EconWorks will follow developments and revisit the analysis as more evidence becomes public.Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/doordashinstacart-whose-choices-would?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
Three companies bid on a government contract. One wins, the rest lose.But what if the companies agreed on the winner before they made their bids?In Episode 9 of How Cartels Really Work, EconWorks explores the economics of bid rigging using a real U.S. school bus cartel case.In United States v. Southwest Bus Sales (1994), the school bus distributors coordinated their bids and divided contracts amongst themselves. But the case also raises an interesting economic question: Were the school districts capable of designing better auctions?Bus manufacturers sold to the distributors and could offer them wholesale price breaks to help them compete. This meant that competition between manufacturers could influence the bids made by distributors.What if school districts held separate auctions for the manufacturing of buses and the distribution services?And what if they had AI?An AI buying assistant might help buyers evaluate alternative auction designs, identify additional suppliers, and monitor procurement outcomes over time.Buyers may not need to show that their suppliers are colluding before they improve their procurement processes.If suppliers realize that buyers are using AI to monitor and reverse-engineer their auctions, they may reconsider whether collusion is worthwhile.But there is another option: suppliers can also use AI.Could competing artificial intelligence systems learn to coordinate their bidding? And what happens when buyers and suppliers are constantly adapting their strategies to each other?In this episode we explore:How repeated procurement auctions enable bid rigging.The U.S. school bus cartel and the role of the manufacturers and distributors.The effect of auction design on competition is also important.How separate auctions for manufacturers and distributors could change procurement outcomes.How AI could help buyers design and monitor auctions at lower cost than traditional economic consulting.Why knowledge of buyers’ use of AI could deter suppliers from colluding.How supplier AI could create new competition challenges.The key question: Can buyers make cartels less profitable by designing better auctions rather than just trying to detect collusion?Read the full article and graphic analysis: Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
Two neighbors order the same groceries from the same supermarket. One chooses the store first. The other opens a delivery app first. Could DoorDash’s proposed acquisition of Instacart affect them differently?This EconWorks episode explores how people choose grocery delivery, when a supermarket’s own service provides an alternative, and why switching between DoorDash and Instacart matters after common ownership.We also examine market shares, personalized offers, and the potential savings from combining delivery operations. The question is whether consumers would face better or worse terms than if the companies continued competing.Anna and Ben are illustrative shoppers, not measured consumer segments. The episode analyzes a proposed transaction and does not assume higher prices or a particular regulatory outcome.Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/doordashinstacart-whose-choices-would?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
Three companies bid on a government contract. One wins, the others lose.But what if the companies agreed on the winner before they placed their bids?In Episode 9 of How Cartels Really Work, EconWorks takes a look at the economics of bid rigging, using a real U.S. school bus cartel case.In United States v. Southwest Bus Sales (1994), the distributors of school busses had coordinated their bids and divided contracts among themselves. But the case also poses an interesting economic question: Could the school districts have designed better auctions?Bus manufacturers sold to the distributors and could provide them wholesale price breaks to help them compete. This meant that the bids made by distributors could be influenced by competition between manufacturers.What if school districts put separate auctions for the manufacturing of buses and the distribution of services?And what if they had AI?An AI buying assistant could help buyers assess alternative auction designs, find additional suppliers, and track procurement performance over time. Buyers may not need to prove that their suppliers are colluding if they want to improve their procurement processes. Suppliers may also reconsider collusion if they realize that buyers are using AI to monitor and reverse-engineer their auctions. But there is another option: suppliers can also utilize AI. Would competing artificial intelligence systems learn to coordinate their bidding? What happens when buyers and suppliers are always adapting their strategies to each other? In this episode we look at: How repeated procurement auctions enable bid rigging. The Role of the U.S. School Bus Cartel and the Manufacturers and Distributors. The impact of auction design on competition is significant. How separate auctions for manufacturers and distributors might affect procurement results. How AI could assist buyers in designing and monitoring auctions at lower cost than traditional economic consulting. Why knowing buyers' use of AI could discourage suppliers from colluding. How AI from suppliers could pose new competition challenges. The central question is whether buyers can design better auctions to make cartels less profitable rather than relying on detecting collusion.Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-9-bid-rigging-can?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
What would really change if Tesla and SpaceX merged?Rockets, vehicles, connectivity, energy storage, and AI. Those all sound consequential. But the size and the technological reach do not prove the merger would harm competition.In this episode of EconWorks we examine possible concerns about blocking rivals, bundling products, and killing future competition—and why those theories don’t seem to have much support at the moment. We also discuss the possible benefits of common ownership for better engineering, investment coordination, and cost reduction.The key question: What difference would ownership make that companies cannot achieve through contracts and cooperation?This episode is looking at a hypothetical merger; it’s not assuming a deal is done.Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/spacex-and-tesla-what-would-a-merger?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
How can a cartel survive for years when its customers are sophisticated firms with substantial buying power? In episode 8 of How Cartels Really Work, we examine two large cases in history, the automobile parts cartels and the international vitamins cartel. Both involved suppliers selling to large businesses with professional purchasing departments. But some of these illegal agreements ran for a decade or more. Why didn’t their customers see the cartels? We begin with Costco’s buying practices. If suppliers want to raise their prices, Costco’s buyers examine the underlying costs and challenge any increases that don’t appear warranted. Sophisticated purchasing managers may have trouble figuring out if their suppliers are colluding. A company might hire economists to analyze the prices, costs, and bidding strategies of suppliers. However, it can be expensive to do detailed economic analysis on thousands of products. Artificial intelligence could alter that equation. AI may allow buyers to look at more transactions, identify suspect pricing patterns, and uncover alternative suppliers at a much lower cost. And here’s an intriguing possibility: Buyers might only have to show that a cartel is less profitable.AI could increase competitive pressure on suppliers and make some cartels harder to sustain if it helps customers identify better alternatives. AI could alter the economics of collusion by making buyers better at buying, right?Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-8-the-biggest-cartels?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
What would really change if Tesla and SpaceX merge?Rockets, vehicles, connectivity, energy storage, and AI. That sounds consequential. But the size and the technological reach are not evidence that the merger would harm competition.In this episode of EconWorks we look at possible worries about blocking rivals, bundling products, and killing future competition—and why those theories don’t seem to have much support right now. We also discuss how common ownership might improve engineering, coordinate investment, and reduce costs.The key question: What difference would ownership make that the companies cannot achieve through contracts and cooperation?This episode is looking at a hypothetical merger; it’s not assuming a deal is done.Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/spacex-and-tesla-what-would-a-merger?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
How can a cartel survive for years when its customers are sophisticated firms with large buying power? Episode 8 of How Cartels Really Work looks at two big cases in history: automobile parts cartels and the international vitamins cartel. Both were suppliers selling to large businesses with professional purchasing departments. But some of these illegal deals lasted for a decade or more. Why didn't their customers see the cartels? Let's start with Costco's buying practices. Costco’s buyers look at the underlying costs when suppliers want to raise their prices and push back on any increases that don’t seem justified. For sophisticated purchasing managers, it may be difficult to tell if their suppliers are colluding. A firm might employ economists to analyze the prices, costs, and bidding strategies of suppliers. However, it can be costly to perform detailed economic analysis on thousands of products. Artificial intelligence could change that equation. AI might enable buyers to review more transactions, detect suspect pricing patterns, and identify alternative suppliers at a much lower cost. And here’s a tantalizing possibility: Buyers may be able to make a cartel less profitable without proving it exists.If AI enables customers to discover better alternatives, then that could increase competitive pressure on suppliers and make some cartels harder to sustain. Could AI change the economics of collusion by making buyers better at buying?Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-8-the-biggest-cartels?r=562wriExplore more visual economics content: https://econworks.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3eSubstack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe
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Industrial organization insights on antitrust, digital platforms, and competition in ecosystem markets. blog.econworks.com
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