Living with a 50% P(AI Doom) — Liron Shapira and Peter Clarke

Peter Clarke (Team Futurism) invited me on his podcast to probe the worldview of a Yudkowskian, and I ended up explaining how my 50% P(Doom) and 10% P(Foom) informs my choices. Peter and I met at LessOnline 2026, where he was one of the participants in a live Jubilee-style debate about x-risk. This one’s a little tamer, but we still cover plenty of ground, like: Why nuclear risk is underrated yet AI doom overshadows it; Why nobody at AI summits is appropriately freaked out;How Yudkowsky’s data center “airstrike” claim gets mischaracterized;Why a superintelligence that doesn’t already value humanity won’t spare us;And the “Icarus curve”, my techno-optimist forecast pre-superintelligence.Subscribe to the Team Futurism podcast —https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554Timestamps00:00:00 — Welcoming Liron on Team Futurism00:00:38 — How Liron Got Yudkowsky-Pilled00:04:11 — AI 2027 and the Next Qualitative Breakthrough00:05:52 — What’s Your P(Doom)?00:10:22 — Why Isn’t Everyone Freaked Out?00:13:09 — How Should We Then Live?00:16:22 — Setting the Record Straight on Yudkowsky’s “Airstrike” Claims00:20:54 — Two Doom Buckets: Misuse vs. Rogue AI00:24:25 — The Bioweapon Kill Scenario00:29:02 — The “Benevolent God” Cope00:33:06 — Epistemology: What We’re Allowed to Know00:40:08 — Dario’s Country of Geniuses in a Data Center00:44:37 — The Icarus Curve00:47:17 — Meaning and Purpose in the AI Era00:49:32 — Wrap-UpLinksTeam Futurism on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554Peter Clarke on X — https://x.com/heypeterclarkeLiron vs. 9 Rationalists at LessOnline 2026 (the “Surrounded” debate with Peter) — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/will-ai-actually-destroy-humanityAI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com/“If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/Species | Documenting AGI, Drew Spartz’s channel — https://www.youtube.com/@AISpeciesDario Amodei’s “Machines of Loving Grace” — https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-graceDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe