Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is Unacceptable — World-Class Coder Casey Muratori

Casey Muratori is one of the top programming educators on YouTube, with a four-decade career building videogames and popular videogame software.We cover his positions on crypto, programming, AI’s impact on programming, and whether he takes the AI doom threat seriously.Casey’s instinct is to break technology down like an engineer until he knows exactly how it’ll operate. Does that approach break down in the modern AI paradigm?This is a ride on the Doom Train™ that lands on a wholly unexpected destination.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:31 — Introducing Casey Muratori00:02:07 — Recap of Crypto Series: Is Crypto Dead?00:11:46 — On Programming & Why Coding Agents Don't Faze Casey00:18:51 — Coding Is a Craft: Drum Machine Example00:36:24 — Pivoting to AI: Can We Forecast Its Capabilities?00:43:36 — Debating if AI Can Acquire Taste00:54:59 — What's Your P(Doom)™?01:04:11 — Even 0.1% X-Risk Is Unacceptable01:07:34 — Modeling Uncertainty: Bayesianism vs "Tie Goes to the Catastrophe"01:09:34 — Is This Pascal's Wager?01:17:12 — Casey's (Cynical) Mainline Scenario01:24:22 — Would You Un-Invent the Internet?01:27:18 — Let's Ride the Doom Train 🚂01:27:51 — Can AI Become Ridiculously Powerful?01:29:11 — Will AI Preserve Humanity (Orthogonality Thesis)?01:32:26 — Will AI Seek Power (Instrumental Convergence)?01:36:06 — Wrap-UpLinksCasey’s podcast, Wading Through AI (with Demetri Spanos) — https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEMXAbCVnmY6U_pA-7GKuP9xiv9utLaP4Casey’s YouTube channel, Molly Rocket — https://www.youtube.com/@MollyRocket@cmuratori (Casey Muratori) on X — https://x.com/cmuratoriDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe